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Politics·Primaries

FL-09 Republican Primary Winner

icon for FL-09 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

FL-09 Republican Primary Winner

Thomas Chalifoux 38%

Justin Story 11%

Marcus Carter 8%

Jorge Malavet 7%

Polymarket

$10,737 Vol.

Thomas Chalifoux 38%

Justin Story 11%

Marcus Carter 8%

Jorge Malavet 7%

Polymarket

$10,737 Vol.

Thomas Chalifoux

$902 Vol.

38%

Justin Story

$7,589 Vol.

31%

Marcus Carter

$289 Vol.

8%

Jorge Malavet

$1,957 Vol.

7%

Howard Steven Rance

$0 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Thomas Chalifoux leads trader consensus at 36.5% implied probability in the FL-09 Republican primary due to his dominant fundraising—over $2.2 million raised and $2.1 million cash on hand as of late March—and name recognition from winning the 2024 GOP primary before losing the general to incumbent Democrat Darren Soto. Justin Story trails closely at 26.5%, buoyed by his profile as a retired Marine officer and recent local town halls in Osceola County. The fragmented field, including veterans Marcus Carter and Howard Steven Rance alongside Jorge Malavet, keeps the August 18, 2026, contest open amid new congressional maps proposed by Governor DeSantis that tilt the district toward Republicans, though no public polls have emerged in the past 30 days to shift sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$10,737
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Thomas Chalifoux leads trader consensus at 36.5% implied probability in the FL-09 Republican primary due to his dominant fundraising—over $2.2 million raised and $2.1 million cash on hand as of late March—and name recognition from winning the 2024 GOP primary before losing the general to incumbent Democrat Darren Soto. Justin Story trails closely at 26.5%, buoyed by his profile as a retired Marine officer and recent local town halls in Osceola County. The fragmented field, including veterans Marcus Carter and Howard Steven Rance alongside Jorge Malavet, keeps the August 18, 2026, contest open amid new congressional maps proposed by Governor DeSantis that tilt the district toward Republicans, though no public polls have emerged in the past 30 days to shift sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$10,737
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Thomas Chalifoux" at 38%, followed by "Justin Story" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 38¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $10.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" is "Thomas Chalifoux" at 38%, meaning the market assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Justin Story" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-09 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.