**Sustained Liberal polling strength under Prime Minister Mark Carney is the dominant factor behind the 94% "No" probability.** Recent national surveys from June 2026, including those by Ipsos, Angus Reid, Nanos, Abacus, and Liaison Strategies, show the Liberals holding leads of 5 to 13 points over the Conservatives, with Liberal support typically in the low-to-mid 40s and Conservative figures in the low-to-mid 30s. These margins have persisted or widened since the 2025 federal election, which delivered a Liberal minority government that later reached majority status through April 2026 by-elections and floor crossings. Carney’s approval and the party’s positioning on trade, tariffs, and middle-power diplomacy have contributed to this stability, while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s party has shown limited recovery in vote intention. No significant polling reversal or major political catalyst has emerged in the first half of 2026 to suggest a Conservative overtake is likely before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.**Sustained Liberal polling strength under Prime Minister Mark Carney is the dominant factor behind the 94% "No" probability.**
Recent national surveys from June 2026, including those by Ipsos, Angus Reid, Nanos, Abacus, and Liaison Strategies, show the Liberals holding leads of 5 to 13 points over the Conservatives, with Liberal support typically in the low-to-mid 40s and Conservative figures in the low-to-mid 30s. These margins have persisted or widened since the 2025 federal election, which delivered a Liberal minority government that later reached majority status through April 2026 by-elections and floor crossings. Carney’s approval and the party’s positioning on trade, tariffs, and middle-power diplomacy have contributed to this stability, while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s party has shown limited recovery in vote intention. No significant polling reversal or major political catalyst has emerged in the first half of 2026 to suggest a Conservative overtake is likely before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Market Opened: Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ET
Volume
$7,222End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.**Sustained Liberal polling strength under Prime Minister Mark Carney is the dominant factor behind the 94% "No" probability.**
Recent national surveys from June 2026, including those by Ipsos, Angus Reid, Nanos, Abacus, and Liaison Strategies, show the Liberals holding leads of 5 to 13 points over the Conservatives, with Liberal support typically in the low-to-mid 40s and Conservative figures in the low-to-mid 30s. These margins have persisted or widened since the 2025 federal election, which delivered a Liberal minority government that later reached majority status through April 2026 by-elections and floor crossings. Carney’s approval and the party’s positioning on trade, tariffs, and middle-power diplomacy have contributed to this stability, while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s party has shown limited recovery in vote intention. No significant polling reversal or major political catalyst has emerged in the first half of 2026 to suggest a Conservative overtake is likely before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Volume
$7,222End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Sustained Liberal polling strength under Prime Minister Mark Carney is the dominant factor behind the 94% "No" probability.** Recent national surveys from June 2026, including those by Ipsos, Angus Reid, Nanos, Abacus, and Liaison Strategies, show the Liberals holding leads of 5 to 13 points over the Conservatives, with Liberal support typically in the low-to-mid 40s and Conservative figures in the low-to-mid 30s. These margins have persisted or widened since the 2025 federal election, which delivered a Liberal minority government that later reached majority status through April 2026 by-elections and floor crossings. Carney’s approval and the party’s positioning on trade, tariffs, and middle-power diplomacy have contributed to this stability, while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s party has shown limited recovery in vote intention. No significant polling reversal or major political catalyst has emerged in the first half of 2026 to suggest a Conservative overtake is likely before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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