Pierre Poilievre remains Conservative Party leader and Leader of the Official Opposition following the party's 2025 election defeat. The mandatory leadership review at the January 2026 Calgary convention produced an 87.4% delegate endorsement, far exceeding the 50% threshold that would have triggered a new contest under party rules. No organized caucus revolt, credible internal challenger, or successful application of Reform Act provisions has emerged since. While several MPs have crossed the floor to the Liberals and broader public polling shows polarization, surveys indicate sustained approval above 75% among Conservative voters and the grassroots base. Poilievre continues active parliamentary and policy engagement through mid-2026 with no scheduled constitutional or procedural triggers before the December 2026 resolution window. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 89% probability he retains the role.