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Politics·Primaries

AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner

icon for AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner

Jay Feely 71%

Joseph Chaplik 23.9%

Gina Swoboda 4.9%

Matt Gress 1.3%

Polymarket

$403,956 Vol.

Jay Feely 71%

Joseph Chaplik 23.9%

Gina Swoboda 4.9%

Matt Gress 1.3%

Polymarket

$403,956 Vol.

Jay Feely

$7,426 Vol.

71%

Joseph Chaplik

$9,283 Vol.

24%

Gina Swoboda

$4,405 Vol.

5%

Matt Gress

$48,794 Vol.

1%

Derrick Gallego

$3,756 Vol.

1%

Jason Duey

$3,082 Vol.

1%

Muchelle Ugenti-Rita

$4,579 Vol.

1%

Kaitlin Purrington

$9,628 Vol.

1%

John Trobough

$3,515 Vol.

<1%

Todd Graham

$7,835 Vol.

<1%

Kari Lake

$6,822 Vol.

<1%

Mark Brnovich

$61,446 Vol.

<1%

Paul Reevs

$222,563 Vol.

<1%

Brandon Sowers

$10,823 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jay Feely leads trader consensus at 70% implied probability in the AZ-01 Republican primary due to his early Trump endorsement in January, backing from Speaker Johnson and House GOP leadership, and a pivotal April 28 endorsement from Rep. Juan Ciscomani, signaling establishment momentum in the open seat race following David Schweikert's gubernatorial bid. State Rep. Joseph Chaplik holds 23% on Polymarket despite a April 22 NextGen poll showing him ahead 24-15% with 54% undecided GOP voters and the highest net approval at +20%, but traders appear to discount the survey amid high volatility and Feely's celebrity as a former NFL kicker drawing crowds at recent events like his April 8 rally with Robert Kennedy Jr. The July 21 primary looms as a test of endorsements versus grassroots support in this Scottsdale-anchored battleground district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$403,956
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 5:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jay Feely leads trader consensus at 70% implied probability in the AZ-01 Republican primary due to his early Trump endorsement in January, backing from Speaker Johnson and House GOP leadership, and a pivotal April 28 endorsement from Rep. Juan Ciscomani, signaling establishment momentum in the open seat race following David Schweikert's gubernatorial bid. State Rep. Joseph Chaplik holds 23% on Polymarket despite a April 22 NextGen poll showing him ahead 24-15% with 54% undecided GOP voters and the highest net approval at +20%, but traders appear to discount the survey amid high volatility and Feely's celebrity as a former NFL kicker drawing crowds at recent events like his April 8 rally with Robert Kennedy Jr. The July 21 primary looms as a test of endorsements versus grassroots support in this Scottsdale-anchored battleground district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$403,956
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 5:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jay Feely" at 71%, followed by "Joseph Chaplik" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 71¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $404K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner" is "Jay Feely" at 71%, meaning the market assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Joseph Chaplik" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.