Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 98.7% for another Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, driven by the absence of any verified diplomatic actions in the past 26 days following Argentina's early April ousting of Iran's chargé d'affaires amid IRGC blacklisting disputes. Earlier catalysts included U.S. disclosure of a December 2025 expulsion of deputy UN envoy Saadat Aghajani over national security, Saudi Arabia's mid-March removal of five Iranian officials citing missile attacks, and Qatar's ejection of military attachés. With no fresh reports from key actors like the State Department, UK Foreign Office, or EU foreign ministries amid ongoing Iran-Israel tensions, traders see negligible risk of late developments such as a sudden terror plot revelation or escalation triggering a last-minute persona non grata declaration before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnother Iranian diplomat expelled by April 30?
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by April 30?
$13,981 Vol.
$13,981 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$13,981 Vol.
$13,981 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 98.7% for another Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, driven by the absence of any verified diplomatic actions in the past 26 days following Argentina's early April ousting of Iran's chargé d'affaires amid IRGC blacklisting disputes. Earlier catalysts included U.S. disclosure of a December 2025 expulsion of deputy UN envoy Saadat Aghajani over national security, Saudi Arabia's mid-March removal of five Iranian officials citing missile attacks, and Qatar's ejection of military attachés. With no fresh reports from key actors like the State Department, UK Foreign Office, or EU foreign ministries amid ongoing Iran-Israel tensions, traders see negligible risk of late developments such as a sudden terror plot revelation or escalation triggering a last-minute persona non grata declaration before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
Volume
$13,981End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 98.7% for another Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, driven by the absence of any verified diplomatic actions in the past 26 days following Argentina's early April ousting of Iran's chargé d'affaires amid IRGC blacklisting disputes. Earlier catalysts included U.S. disclosure of a December 2025 expulsion of deputy UN envoy Saadat Aghajani over national security, Saudi Arabia's mid-March removal of five Iranian officials citing missile attacks, and Qatar's ejection of military attachés. With no fresh reports from key actors like the State Department, UK Foreign Office, or EU foreign ministries amid ongoing Iran-Israel tensions, traders see negligible risk of late developments such as a sudden terror plot revelation or escalation triggering a last-minute persona non grata declaration before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$13,981End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 98.7% for another Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, driven by the absence of any verified diplomatic actions in the past 26 days following Argentina's early April ousting of Iran's chargé d'affaires amid IRGC blacklisting disputes. Earlier catalysts included U.S. disclosure of a December 2025 expulsion of deputy UN envoy Saadat Aghajani over national security, Saudi Arabia's mid-March removal of five Iranian officials citing missile attacks, and Qatar's ejection of military attachés. With no fresh reports from key actors like the State Department, UK Foreign Office, or EU foreign ministries amid ongoing Iran-Israel tensions, traders see negligible risk of late developments such as a sudden terror plot revelation or escalation triggering a last-minute persona non grata declaration before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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