Amid heightened US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz blockade, nuclear program, and ceasefire terms, trader consensus shows minimal implied probability for high-level meetings by April 30, 2026, reflecting stalled direct diplomacy. Iran submitted a three-phase peace proposal on April 27 to reopen the strait and halt hostilities, which the Trump administration is reviewing, but Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi prioritized outreach to Russia—meeting President Putin—and others without US principals convening. President Trump confirmed phone talks but demanded zero nuclear weapons, while Supreme Leader Khamenei's April 30 statement rejected American presence. Japan Prime Minister Takaichi held discussions with Iran's president today on safe passage, yet no US-Iran summit materialized ahead of the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,000,546 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Donald Trump
<1%
J.D. Vance
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Jared Kushner
1%
Steve Witkoff
<1%
$2,000,546 Vol.
Donald Trump
$786,344 Vol.
<1%
J.D. Vance
$696,305 Vol.
<1%
Marco Rubio
$67,145 Vol.
<1%
Jared Kushner
$251,678 Vol.
1%
Steve Witkoff
$226,996 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Amid heightened US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz blockade, nuclear program, and ceasefire terms, trader consensus shows minimal implied probability for high-level meetings by April 30, 2026, reflecting stalled direct diplomacy. Iran submitted a three-phase peace proposal on April 27 to reopen the strait and halt hostilities, which the Trump administration is reviewing, but Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi prioritized outreach to Russia—meeting President Putin—and others without US principals convening. President Trump confirmed phone talks but demanded zero nuclear weapons, while Supreme Leader Khamenei's April 30 statement rejected American presence. Japan Prime Minister Takaichi held discussions with Iran's president today on safe passage, yet no US-Iran summit materialized ahead of the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$2,000,546End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Amid heightened US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz blockade, nuclear program, and ceasefire terms, trader consensus shows minimal implied probability for high-level meetings by April 30, 2026, reflecting stalled direct diplomacy. Iran submitted a three-phase peace proposal on April 27 to reopen the strait and halt hostilities, which the Trump administration is reviewing, but Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi prioritized outreach to Russia—meeting President Putin—and others without US principals convening. President Trump confirmed phone talks but demanded zero nuclear weapons, while Supreme Leader Khamenei's April 30 statement rejected American presence. Japan Prime Minister Takaichi held discussions with Iran's president today on safe passage, yet no US-Iran summit materialized ahead of the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$2,000,546End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid heightened US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz blockade, nuclear program, and ceasefire terms, trader consensus shows minimal implied probability for high-level meetings by April 30, 2026, reflecting stalled direct diplomacy. Iran submitted a three-phase peace proposal on April 27 to reopen the strait and halt hostilities, which the Trump administration is reviewing, but Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi prioritized outreach to Russia—meeting President Putin—and others without US principals convening. President Trump confirmed phone talks but demanded zero nuclear weapons, while Supreme Leader Khamenei's April 30 statement rejected American presence. Japan Prime Minister Takaichi held discussions with Iran's president today on safe passage, yet no US-Iran summit materialized ahead of the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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