White House confirmation of President Trump's rescheduled summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14-15, delayed from late March amid the Iran war, anchors trader consensus toward mid-May, boosting probabilities for those dates while elevating "No visit by May 31" to 24% amid geopolitical risks. Recent reports of a potential Japan stopover beforehand—sought by Tokyo for talks on Japan-China relations and Taiwan—have traders pricing May 13 arrival at 39.5%, slightly ahead of May 14 at 25%, reflecting uncertainty in final scheduling. Diplomatic preparations, including US lawmakers' pre-summit visits and Trump's public anticipation, signal commitment, though trade tensions and regional flashpoints like the Strait of Hormuz could still prompt shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Trump visit China on...?
Will Trump visit China on...?
May 13 42%
May 14 25%
No visit by May 31 24%
May 15 3.5%
$175,692 Vol.
$175,692 Vol.
On or prior to May 1
<1%
May 2
<1%
May 3
<1%
May 4
<1%
May 5
<1%
May 6
<1%
May 7
<1%
May 8
<1%
May 9
1%
May 10
<1%
May 11
<1%
May 12
<1%
May 13
42%
May 14
25%
May 15
3%
May 16
2%
May 17
1%
May 18
1%
May 19
1%
May 20
1%
May 21
1%
May 22
1%
May 23
<1%
May 24
1%
May 25
2%
May 26
1%
May 27
1%
May 28
1%
May 29
1%
May 30
1%
May 31
1%
No visit by May 31
24%
May 13 42%
May 14 25%
No visit by May 31 24%
May 15 3.5%
$175,692 Vol.
$175,692 Vol.
On or prior to May 1
<1%
May 2
<1%
May 3
<1%
May 4
<1%
May 5
<1%
May 6
<1%
May 7
<1%
May 8
<1%
May 9
1%
May 10
<1%
May 11
<1%
May 12
<1%
May 13
42%
May 14
25%
May 15
3%
May 16
2%
May 17
1%
May 18
1%
May 19
1%
May 20
1%
May 21
1%
May 22
1%
May 23
<1%
May 24
1%
May 25
2%
May 26
1%
May 27
1%
May 28
1%
May 29
1%
May 30
1%
May 31
1%
No visit by May 31
24%
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 3:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...White House confirmation of President Trump's rescheduled summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14-15, delayed from late March amid the Iran war, anchors trader consensus toward mid-May, boosting probabilities for those dates while elevating "No visit by May 31" to 24% amid geopolitical risks. Recent reports of a potential Japan stopover beforehand—sought by Tokyo for talks on Japan-China relations and Taiwan—have traders pricing May 13 arrival at 39.5%, slightly ahead of May 14 at 25%, reflecting uncertainty in final scheduling. Diplomatic preparations, including US lawmakers' pre-summit visits and Trump's public anticipation, signal commitment, though trade tensions and regional flashpoints like the Strait of Hormuz could still prompt shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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