Diplomatic continuity has held since early 2026, with no additional countries expelling Israeli ambassadors following South Africa's January action and Israel's reciprocal move. Spain's March decision to permanently withdraw its own envoy from Tel Aviv—downgrading representation rather than expelling Israel's—highlighted strains tied to Gaza and Iran-related tensions but stopped short of reciprocal rupture. Iran's March offer of Strait of Hormuz passage incentives for such expulsions drew no follow-through from Arab or European states. Traders price "No" at 66.5% through December 31 as these patterns reflect limited bilateral escalation absent coordinated multilateral shifts, though scheduled diplomatic forums or conflict developments could still alter the consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
$34,349 Vol.
$34,349 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$34,349 Vol.
$34,349 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic continuity has held since early 2026, with no additional countries expelling Israeli ambassadors following South Africa's January action and Israel's reciprocal move. Spain's March decision to permanently withdraw its own envoy from Tel Aviv—downgrading representation rather than expelling Israel's—highlighted strains tied to Gaza and Iran-related tensions but stopped short of reciprocal rupture. Iran's March offer of Strait of Hormuz passage incentives for such expulsions drew no follow-through from Arab or European states. Traders price "No" at 66.5% through December 31 as these patterns reflect limited bilateral escalation absent coordinated multilateral shifts, though scheduled diplomatic forums or conflict developments could still alter the consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volume
$34,349End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic continuity has held since early 2026, with no additional countries expelling Israeli ambassadors following South Africa's January action and Israel's reciprocal move. Spain's March decision to permanently withdraw its own envoy from Tel Aviv—downgrading representation rather than expelling Israel's—highlighted strains tied to Gaza and Iran-related tensions but stopped short of reciprocal rupture. Iran's March offer of Strait of Hormuz passage incentives for such expulsions drew no follow-through from Arab or European states. Traders price "No" at 66.5% through December 31 as these patterns reflect limited bilateral escalation absent coordinated multilateral shifts, though scheduled diplomatic forums or conflict developments could still alter the consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$34,349End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic continuity has held since early 2026, with no additional countries expelling Israeli ambassadors following South Africa's January action and Israel's reciprocal move. Spain's March decision to permanently withdraw its own envoy from Tel Aviv—downgrading representation rather than expelling Israel's—highlighted strains tied to Gaza and Iran-related tensions but stopped short of reciprocal rupture. Iran's March offer of Strait of Hormuz passage incentives for such expulsions drew no follow-through from Arab or European states. Traders price "No" at 66.5% through December 31 as these patterns reflect limited bilateral escalation absent coordinated multilateral shifts, though scheduled diplomatic forums or conflict developments could still alter the consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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