Trader consensus slightly favors no country expelling an Israeli ambassador by year-end at 53.5%, reflecting the absence of such actions amid escalating diplomatic tensions over Israel's military operations in Gaza, Lebanon, and recent strikes on Iran. South Africa expelled an Israeli diplomat—not the ambassador—in February, prompting U.S. condemnation, while Spain permanently recalled its own envoy from Israel in March over Gaza and Iran disputes. Parliamentary motions, like Jordan's to expel, have gained traction but failed to advance to government levels. The close odds highlight uncertainty from Global South shifts, such as Brazil's sharp rhetoric under President Lula, with potential tipping points including ICC developments, further escalations, or elections altering foreign policy postures before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
$28,352 Vol.
$28,352 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$28,352 Vol.
$28,352 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus slightly favors no country expelling an Israeli ambassador by year-end at 53.5%, reflecting the absence of such actions amid escalating diplomatic tensions over Israel's military operations in Gaza, Lebanon, and recent strikes on Iran. South Africa expelled an Israeli diplomat—not the ambassador—in February, prompting U.S. condemnation, while Spain permanently recalled its own envoy from Israel in March over Gaza and Iran disputes. Parliamentary motions, like Jordan's to expel, have gained traction but failed to advance to government levels. The close odds highlight uncertainty from Global South shifts, such as Brazil's sharp rhetoric under President Lula, with potential tipping points including ICC developments, further escalations, or elections altering foreign policy postures before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volume
$28,352End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus slightly favors no country expelling an Israeli ambassador by year-end at 53.5%, reflecting the absence of such actions amid escalating diplomatic tensions over Israel's military operations in Gaza, Lebanon, and recent strikes on Iran. South Africa expelled an Israeli diplomat—not the ambassador—in February, prompting U.S. condemnation, while Spain permanently recalled its own envoy from Israel in March over Gaza and Iran disputes. Parliamentary motions, like Jordan's to expel, have gained traction but failed to advance to government levels. The close odds highlight uncertainty from Global South shifts, such as Brazil's sharp rhetoric under President Lula, with potential tipping points including ICC developments, further escalations, or elections altering foreign policy postures before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$28,352End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus slightly favors no country expelling an Israeli ambassador by year-end at 53.5%, reflecting the absence of such actions amid escalating diplomatic tensions over Israel's military operations in Gaza, Lebanon, and recent strikes on Iran. South Africa expelled an Israeli diplomat—not the ambassador—in February, prompting U.S. condemnation, while Spain permanently recalled its own envoy from Israel in March over Gaza and Iran disputes. Parliamentary motions, like Jordan's to expel, have gained traction but failed to advance to government levels. The close odds highlight uncertainty from Global South shifts, such as Brazil's sharp rhetoric under President Lula, with potential tipping points including ICC developments, further escalations, or elections altering foreign policy postures before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions