Recent independent polling for the June 18 Makerfield by-election places Restore Britain candidate Rebecca Shepherd at around 7%, with Labour and Reform UK dominating the contest. The new party, founded by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe and contesting its first Westminster seat, has drawn right-wing support but faces vote-splitting dynamics that limit its reach in this Labour-leaning constituency. Canvassing claims from Restore Britain suggest higher figures, yet these remain unconfirmed by neutral surveys conducted in the past week. Traders view the 10% threshold as unlikely given the party's limited national profile, short campaign timeline, and competition from established alternatives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMakerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?
NEW
NEW
Jun 18, 2026
NEW
NEW
Jun 18, 2026
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).Recent independent polling for the June 18 Makerfield by-election places Restore Britain candidate Rebecca Shepherd at around 7%, with Labour and Reform UK dominating the contest. The new party, founded by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe and contesting its first Westminster seat, has drawn right-wing support but faces vote-splitting dynamics that limit its reach in this Labour-leaning constituency. Canvassing claims from Restore Britain suggest higher figures, yet these remain unconfirmed by neutral surveys conducted in the past week. Traders view the 10% threshold as unlikely given the party's limited national profile, short campaign timeline, and competition from established alternatives.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Market Opened: Jun 8, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
Volume
$328End Date
Jun 18, 2026Market Opened
Jun 8, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).Recent independent polling for the June 18 Makerfield by-election places Restore Britain candidate Rebecca Shepherd at around 7%, with Labour and Reform UK dominating the contest. The new party, founded by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe and contesting its first Westminster seat, has drawn right-wing support but faces vote-splitting dynamics that limit its reach in this Labour-leaning constituency. Canvassing claims from Restore Britain suggest higher figures, yet these remain unconfirmed by neutral surveys conducted in the past week. Traders view the 10% threshold as unlikely given the party's limited national profile, short campaign timeline, and competition from established alternatives.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Volume
$328End Date
Jun 18, 2026Market Opened
Jun 8, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent independent polling for the June 18 Makerfield by-election places Restore Britain candidate Rebecca Shepherd at around 7%, with Labour and Reform UK dominating the contest. The new party, founded by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe and contesting its first Westminster seat, has drawn right-wing support but faces vote-splitting dynamics that limit its reach in this Labour-leaning constituency. Canvassing claims from Restore Britain suggest higher figures, yet these remain unconfirmed by neutral surveys conducted in the past week. Traders view the 10% threshold as unlikely given the party's limited national profile, short campaign timeline, and competition from established alternatives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions