Trader consensus on the 2026 House popular vote margin reflects heightened uncertainty from mixed generic ballot polling, with the latest Harvard-Harris survey (April 23-26) showing a dead heat at 50% Democrat versus 50% Republican among registered and likely voters, bolstering the leading "Other" outcome at 45.5% for narrow or atypical margins. Averages like Nate Silver's D+5.8 and RealClearPolling's D+5.2 suggest moderate Democratic edges akin to 4-6% or 6-8% bins (13% each), yet Emerson's outlier D+10 among Hispanics tempers bets on larger leads amid President Trump's slipping 42% approval and policy flashpoints like Iran tensions. Early-cycle volatility, redistricting battles including recent Supreme Court input, and historical midterm patterns—where generic ballots overestimate Democratic margins—position Republicans' slim 0-2% win (20.3%) as a viable upset, with primaries looming in battleground states.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDemocrats 6-8% 19%
Democrats 8-10% 17%
Democrats 10-12% 16%
Democrats 4-6% 12%
$31,372 Vol.
$31,372 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
8%
Democrats 14-16%
7%
Democrats 12-14%
9%
Democrats 10-12%
16%
Democrats 8-10%
19%
Democrats 6-8%
14%
Democrats 4-6%
12%
Democrats 2-4%
11%
Democrats 0-2%
7%
Republicans 0-2%
18%
Republicans 2-4%
11%
Republicans 4-6%
9%
Republicans 6%+
10%
Democrats 6-8% 19%
Democrats 8-10% 17%
Democrats 10-12% 16%
Democrats 4-6% 12%
$31,372 Vol.
$31,372 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
$247 Vol.
8%
Democrats 14-16%
$302 Vol.
7%
Democrats 12-14%
$193 Vol.
9%
Democrats 10-12%
$801 Vol.
16%
Democrats 8-10%
$630 Vol.
19%
Democrats 6-8%
$446 Vol.
14%
Democrats 4-6%
$199 Vol.
12%
Democrats 2-4%
$812 Vol.
11%
Democrats 0-2%
$869 Vol.
7%
Republicans 0-2%
$195 Vol.
18%
Republicans 2-4%
$25,830 Vol.
11%
Republicans 4-6%
$188 Vol.
9%
Republicans 6%+
$659 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Trader consensus on the 2026 House popular vote margin reflects heightened uncertainty from mixed generic ballot polling, with the latest Harvard-Harris survey (April 23-26) showing a dead heat at 50% Democrat versus 50% Republican among registered and likely voters, bolstering the leading "Other" outcome at 45.5% for narrow or atypical margins. Averages like Nate Silver's D+5.8 and RealClearPolling's D+5.2 suggest moderate Democratic edges akin to 4-6% or 6-8% bins (13% each), yet Emerson's outlier D+10 among Hispanics tempers bets on larger leads amid President Trump's slipping 42% approval and policy flashpoints like Iran tensions. Early-cycle volatility, redistricting battles including recent Supreme Court input, and historical midterm patterns—where generic ballots overestimate Democratic margins—position Republicans' slim 0-2% win (20.3%) as a viable upset, with primaries looming in battleground states.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Market Opened: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$31,372End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Trader consensus on the 2026 House popular vote margin reflects heightened uncertainty from mixed generic ballot polling, with the latest Harvard-Harris survey (April 23-26) showing a dead heat at 50% Democrat versus 50% Republican among registered and likely voters, bolstering the leading "Other" outcome at 45.5% for narrow or atypical margins. Averages like Nate Silver's D+5.8 and RealClearPolling's D+5.2 suggest moderate Democratic edges akin to 4-6% or 6-8% bins (13% each), yet Emerson's outlier D+10 among Hispanics tempers bets on larger leads amid President Trump's slipping 42% approval and policy flashpoints like Iran tensions. Early-cycle volatility, redistricting battles including recent Supreme Court input, and historical midterm patterns—where generic ballots overestimate Democratic margins—position Republicans' slim 0-2% win (20.3%) as a viable upset, with primaries looming in battleground states.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$31,372End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the 2026 House popular vote margin reflects heightened uncertainty from mixed generic ballot polling, with the latest Harvard-Harris survey (April 23-26) showing a dead heat at 50% Democrat versus 50% Republican among registered and likely voters, bolstering the leading "Other" outcome at 45.5% for narrow or atypical margins. Averages like Nate Silver's D+5.8 and RealClearPolling's D+5.2 suggest moderate Democratic edges akin to 4-6% or 6-8% bins (13% each), yet Emerson's outlier D+10 among Hispanics tempers bets on larger leads amid President Trump's slipping 42% approval and policy flashpoints like Iran tensions. Early-cycle volatility, redistricting battles including recent Supreme Court input, and historical midterm patterns—where generic ballots overestimate Democratic margins—position Republicans' slim 0-2% win (20.3%) as a viable upset, with primaries looming in battleground states.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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