Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats ahead by an average of roughly 5–6 points, aligning with historical patterns of midterm losses for the president’s party when approval ratings sit in the mid-to-low 40s or below. Trader pricing places Democratic margins in the 6–12 point range as the most likely single-digit outcomes, while the elevated “Other” share reflects uncertainty over whether redistricting shifts, turnout differentials, or late-cycle economic or foreign-policy developments could push the national popular vote outside those bands. Ongoing battles over congressional maps in key states and persistently low presidential approval continue to anchor expectations for a modest Democratic edge in the aggregate vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDemocrats 8-10% 21%
Democrats 6-8% 18%
Democrats 10-12% 16%
Democrats 12-14% 8.9%
$76,036 Vol.
$76,036 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
3%
Democrats 14-16%
3%
Democrats 12-14%
9%
Democrats 10-12%
16%
Democrats 8-10%
21%
Democrats 6-8%
18%
Democrats 4-6%
9%
Democrats 2-4%
6%
Democrats 0-2%
4%
Republicans 0-2%
7%
Republicans 2-4%
7%
Republicans 4-6%
2%
Republicans 6%+
2%
Democrats 8-10% 21%
Democrats 6-8% 18%
Democrats 10-12% 16%
Democrats 12-14% 8.9%
$76,036 Vol.
$76,036 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
$1,568 Vol.
3%
Democrats 14-16%
$996 Vol.
3%
Democrats 12-14%
$3,104 Vol.
9%
Democrats 10-12%
$4,579 Vol.
16%
Democrats 8-10%
$5,200 Vol.
21%
Democrats 6-8%
$9,486 Vol.
18%
Democrats 4-6%
$2,259 Vol.
9%
Democrats 2-4%
$9,056 Vol.
6%
Democrats 0-2%
$8,660 Vol.
4%
Republicans 0-2%
$2,138 Vol.
7%
Republicans 2-4%
$26,600 Vol.
7%
Republicans 4-6%
$795 Vol.
2%
Republicans 6%+
$1,593 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats ahead by an average of roughly 5–6 points, aligning with historical patterns of midterm losses for the president’s party when approval ratings sit in the mid-to-low 40s or below. Trader pricing places Democratic margins in the 6–12 point range as the most likely single-digit outcomes, while the elevated “Other” share reflects uncertainty over whether redistricting shifts, turnout differentials, or late-cycle economic or foreign-policy developments could push the national popular vote outside those bands. Ongoing battles over congressional maps in key states and persistently low presidential approval continue to anchor expectations for a modest Democratic edge in the aggregate vote.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Market Opened: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$76,036End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats ahead by an average of roughly 5–6 points, aligning with historical patterns of midterm losses for the president’s party when approval ratings sit in the mid-to-low 40s or below. Trader pricing places Democratic margins in the 6–12 point range as the most likely single-digit outcomes, while the elevated “Other” share reflects uncertainty over whether redistricting shifts, turnout differentials, or late-cycle economic or foreign-policy developments could push the national popular vote outside those bands. Ongoing battles over congressional maps in key states and persistently low presidential approval continue to anchor expectations for a modest Democratic edge in the aggregate vote.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$76,036End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats ahead by an average of roughly 5–6 points, aligning with historical patterns of midterm losses for the president’s party when approval ratings sit in the mid-to-low 40s or below. Trader pricing places Democratic margins in the 6–12 point range as the most likely single-digit outcomes, while the elevated “Other” share reflects uncertainty over whether redistricting shifts, turnout differentials, or late-cycle economic or foreign-policy developments could push the national popular vote outside those bands. Ongoing battles over congressional maps in key states and persistently low presidential approval continue to anchor expectations for a modest Democratic edge in the aggregate vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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