North Korea’s formal designation of South Korea as a “hostile state” and its pivot toward nuclear consolidation plus diplomatic outreach to Russia, China, and the United States have anchored trader expectations against a full-scale invasion before 2027. Missile tests, destroyer deployments, DMZ fortification, and border-unit strengthening signal deterrence and capability-building rather than imminent offensive mobilization, while Pyongyang continues to reject inter-Korean dialogue. Seoul’s emphasis on peaceful coexistence under President Lee Jae-myung, combined with U.S.-South Korea joint exercises and alliance commitments, further raises the costs of any southern thrust. Although low-probability triggers such as severe miscalculation during drills, rapid shifts in U.S. policy, or unexpected internal pressures in Pyongyang remain possible, current patterns of calibrated provocation without large-scale troop concentrations or logistical preparations support the market’s strong consensus against invasion.