Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 86.6% implied probability for Alberta voting for independence in 2026, driven by a recent Edmonton judge's April 10 ruling granting a month-long stay on certifying Stay Free Alberta's citizen initiative petition signatures, amid First Nations injunctions citing treaty rights threats that have stalled progress toward a referendum. Polls, including a late-April CBC survey, show stagnant separatism support around 30%, with majorities preferring to remain in Canada, while Premier Danielle Smith prioritizes her government's separate October 19 provincial referendum on nine questions enhancing provincial sovereignty over immigration and constitutional powers—explicitly rejecting secession. Constitutional barriers to unilateral separation further diminish prospects absent federal negotiations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$63,005 Vol.
$63,005 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$63,005 Vol.
$63,005 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 86.6% implied probability for Alberta voting for independence in 2026, driven by a recent Edmonton judge's April 10 ruling granting a month-long stay on certifying Stay Free Alberta's citizen initiative petition signatures, amid First Nations injunctions citing treaty rights threats that have stalled progress toward a referendum. Polls, including a late-April CBC survey, show stagnant separatism support around 30%, with majorities preferring to remain in Canada, while Premier Danielle Smith prioritizes her government's separate October 19 provincial referendum on nine questions enhancing provincial sovereignty over immigration and constitutional powers—explicitly rejecting secession. Constitutional barriers to unilateral separation further diminish prospects absent federal negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Volumen
$63,005Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 86.6% implied probability for Alberta voting for independence in 2026, driven by a recent Edmonton judge's April 10 ruling granting a month-long stay on certifying Stay Free Alberta's citizen initiative petition signatures, amid First Nations injunctions citing treaty rights threats that have stalled progress toward a referendum. Polls, including a late-April CBC survey, show stagnant separatism support around 30%, with majorities preferring to remain in Canada, while Premier Danielle Smith prioritizes her government's separate October 19 provincial referendum on nine questions enhancing provincial sovereignty over immigration and constitutional powers—explicitly rejecting secession. Constitutional barriers to unilateral separation further diminish prospects absent federal negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$63,005Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 86.6% implied probability for Alberta voting for independence in 2026, driven by a recent Edmonton judge's April 10 ruling granting a month-long stay on certifying Stay Free Alberta's citizen initiative petition signatures, amid First Nations injunctions citing treaty rights threats that have stalled progress toward a referendum. Polls, including a late-April CBC survey, show stagnant separatism support around 30%, with majorities preferring to remain in Canada, while Premier Danielle Smith prioritizes her government's separate October 19 provincial referendum on nine questions enhancing provincial sovereignty over immigration and constitutional powers—explicitly rejecting secession. Constitutional barriers to unilateral separation further diminish prospects absent federal negotiations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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