President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads first-round polls for Brazil's October 4 presidential election, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro polling a strong second, positioning both as frontrunners to advance to an October 25 runoff absent a majority winner. Late April surveys by AtlasIntel and Nexus confirm Lula at 41-47% and Flávio at 36-40%, far ahead of others like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema under 6%, reflecting steady polling trends over the past month despite party nominations such as PSD's selection of Caiado in late March. Hypothetical runoffs show statistical ties, often with Flávio edging ahead narrowly. Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility bolsters his son's right-wing challenge. Key upcoming events include party conventions through August for final candidate slates and the official campaign start August 16, alongside potential debates that could sway undecided voters comprising 10-20% in polls.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Qué candidatos avanzarán a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Brasil?
¿Qué candidatos avanzarán a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Brasil?
$299,379 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
85%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
78%
Fernando Haddad
8%
Jair Bolsonaro
3%
Michelle Bolsonaro
3%
Tarcisio de Freitas
3%
$299,379 Vol.
Flavio Bolsonaro
$16,945 Vol.
85%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$127,715 Vol.
78%
Fernando Haddad
$49,462 Vol.
8%
Jair Bolsonaro
$9,523 Vol.
3%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$24,321 Vol.
3%
Tarcisio de Freitas
$71,413 Vol.
3%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads first-round polls for Brazil's October 4 presidential election, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro polling a strong second, positioning both as frontrunners to advance to an October 25 runoff absent a majority winner. Late April surveys by AtlasIntel and Nexus confirm Lula at 41-47% and Flávio at 36-40%, far ahead of others like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema under 6%, reflecting steady polling trends over the past month despite party nominations such as PSD's selection of Caiado in late March. Hypothetical runoffs show statistical ties, often with Flávio edging ahead narrowly. Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility bolsters his son's right-wing challenge. Key upcoming events include party conventions through August for final candidate slates and the official campaign start August 16, alongside potential debates that could sway undecided voters comprising 10-20% in polls.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
Volumen
$299,379Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads first-round polls for Brazil's October 4 presidential election, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro polling a strong second, positioning both as frontrunners to advance to an October 25 runoff absent a majority winner. Late April surveys by AtlasIntel and Nexus confirm Lula at 41-47% and Flávio at 36-40%, far ahead of others like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema under 6%, reflecting steady polling trends over the past month despite party nominations such as PSD's selection of Caiado in late March. Hypothetical runoffs show statistical ties, often with Flávio edging ahead narrowly. Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility bolsters his son's right-wing challenge. Key upcoming events include party conventions through August for final candidate slates and the official campaign start August 16, alongside potential debates that could sway undecided voters comprising 10-20% in polls.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$299,379Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads first-round polls for Brazil's October 4 presidential election, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro polling a strong second, positioning both as frontrunners to advance to an October 25 runoff absent a majority winner. Late April surveys by AtlasIntel and Nexus confirm Lula at 41-47% and Flávio at 36-40%, far ahead of others like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema under 6%, reflecting steady polling trends over the past month despite party nominations such as PSD's selection of Caiado in late March. Hypothetical runoffs show statistical ties, often with Flávio edging ahead narrowly. Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility bolsters his son's right-wing challenge. Key upcoming events include party conventions through August for final candidate slates and the official campaign start August 16, alongside potential debates that could sway undecided voters comprising 10-20% in polls.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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