Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth at 90% probability to become Wales's next First Minister following the May 7 Senedd election, driven by recent polls projecting Plaid as the strongest party to form a coalition or minority government in a likely hung parliament. A Survation poll released April 29 showed Reform UK edging Plaid Cymru 30%-28% on regional lists amid Labour's collapse to 15%, yet Plaid's 33 projected seats position it better for alliances with Greens or Liberal Democrats than Reform's 37, given the latter's coalition challenges. Rhun ap Iorwerth's April 29 interviews highlighted ambitious plans to prioritize Wales over Westminster ties, sustaining momentum despite the tight race in the expanded 96-seat chamber under proportional representation. Late shifts in turnout or tactical voting could still alter outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNext First Minister of Wales?
Next First Minister of Wales?
Rhun ap Iorwerth 90%
Eluned Morgan 12.8%
Jane Dodds 6.3%
Anthony Slaughter 5.5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
7 may 2026
Rhun ap Iorwerth
90%
Eluned Morgan
13%
Jane Dodds
6%
Anthony Slaughter
6%
Darren Millar
5%
Dan Thomas
3%
Rhun ap Iorwerth 90%
Eluned Morgan 12.8%
Jane Dodds 6.3%
Anthony Slaughter 5.5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
7 may 2026
Rhun ap Iorwerth
$1,056 Vol.
90%
Eluned Morgan
$228 Vol.
13%
Jane Dodds
$176 Vol.
6%
Anthony Slaughter
$318 Vol.
6%
Darren Millar
$212 Vol.
5%
Dan Thomas
$391 Vol.
3%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Wales; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth at 90% probability to become Wales's next First Minister following the May 7 Senedd election, driven by recent polls projecting Plaid as the strongest party to form a coalition or minority government in a likely hung parliament. A Survation poll released April 29 showed Reform UK edging Plaid Cymru 30%-28% on regional lists amid Labour's collapse to 15%, yet Plaid's 33 projected seats position it better for alliances with Greens or Liberal Democrats than Reform's 37, given the latter's coalition challenges. Rhun ap Iorwerth's April 29 interviews highlighted ambitious plans to prioritize Wales over Westminster ties, sustaining momentum despite the tight race in the expanded 96-seat chamber under proportional representation. Late shifts in turnout or tactical voting could still alter outcomes.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Wales; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Wales; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 23, 2026, 6:19 PM ET
Volumen
$2,381Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 23, 2026, 6:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Wales; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth at 90% probability to become Wales's next First Minister following the May 7 Senedd election, driven by recent polls projecting Plaid as the strongest party to form a coalition or minority government in a likely hung parliament. A Survation poll released April 29 showed Reform UK edging Plaid Cymru 30%-28% on regional lists amid Labour's collapse to 15%, yet Plaid's 33 projected seats position it better for alliances with Greens or Liberal Democrats than Reform's 37, given the latter's coalition challenges. Rhun ap Iorwerth's April 29 interviews highlighted ambitious plans to prioritize Wales over Westminster ties, sustaining momentum despite the tight race in the expanded 96-seat chamber under proportional representation. Late shifts in turnout or tactical voting could still alter outcomes.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Wales; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Wales; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$2,381Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 23, 2026, 6:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth at 90% probability to become Wales's next First Minister following the May 7 Senedd election, driven by recent polls projecting Plaid as the strongest party to form a coalition or minority government in a likely hung parliament. A Survation poll released April 29 showed Reform UK edging Plaid Cymru 30%-28% on regional lists amid Labour's collapse to 15%, yet Plaid's 33 projected seats position it better for alliances with Greens or Liberal Democrats than Reform's 37, given the latter's coalition challenges. Rhun ap Iorwerth's April 29 interviews highlighted ambitious plans to prioritize Wales over Westminster ties, sustaining momentum despite the tight race in the expanded 96-seat chamber under proportional representation. Late shifts in turnout or tactical voting could still alter outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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