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Elecciones·Reino Unido

Next First Minister of Scotland?

icon for Next First Minister of Scotland?
Elecciones·Reino Unido

Next First Minister of Scotland?

John Swinney 96.0%

Anas Sarwar 6.2%

Gillian Mackay 1.4%

Russell Findlay 1.0%

Polymarket
NUEVO

John Swinney 96.0%

Anas Sarwar 6.2%

Gillian Mackay 1.4%

Russell Findlay 1.0%

Polymarket
NUEVO
icon for John Swinney

John Swinney

$2,100 Vol.

96%

icon for Anas Sarwar

Anas Sarwar

$851 Vol.

6%

icon for Gillian Mackay

Gillian Mackay

$296 Vol.

1%

icon for Russell Findlay

Russell Findlay

$314 Vol.

1%

icon for Ross Greer

Ross Greer

$295 Vol.

1%

icon for Alex Cole-Hamilton

Alex Cole-Hamilton

$387 Vol.

1%

icon for Malcolm Offord

Malcolm Offord

$280 Vol.

1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ahead of the May 7, 2026, Scottish Parliament election, trader consensus prices SNP leader John Swinney at a commanding 96% implied probability as next First Minister, driven by consistent polling averages showing the SNP as the largest party with 35-38% constituency vote share and 29% on the regional list. Recent Survation (April 17-23) and Find Out Now polls reinforce this, while a YouGov MRP projects 67 seats—a slim majority of 65 needed—bolstered by opposition fragmentation among Labour (Anas Sarwar), Reform UK (Russell Findlay), Conservatives, Liberal Democrats (Alex Cole-Hamilton), and Greens (Gillian Mackay). Scenarios challenging this include a late polling swing, SNP shortfall prompting coalition exclusion, or post-election leadership contest within the SNP.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$4,524
Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 23, 2026, 6:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ahead of the May 7, 2026, Scottish Parliament election, trader consensus prices SNP leader John Swinney at a commanding 96% implied probability as next First Minister, driven by consistent polling averages showing the SNP as the largest party with 35-38% constituency vote share and 29% on the regional list. Recent Survation (April 17-23) and Find Out Now polls reinforce this, while a YouGov MRP projects 67 seats—a slim majority of 65 needed—bolstered by opposition fragmentation among Labour (Anas Sarwar), Reform UK (Russell Findlay), Conservatives, Liberal Democrats (Alex Cole-Hamilton), and Greens (Gillian Mackay). Scenarios challenging this include a late polling swing, SNP shortfall prompting coalition exclusion, or post-election leadership contest within the SNP.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$4,524
Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 23, 2026, 6:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Next First Minister of Scotland?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 7 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "John Swinney" con 96%, seguido de "Anas Sarwar" con 6%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 96¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 96% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Next First Minister of Scotland?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Apr 23, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Next First Minister of Scotland?", explora los 7 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Next First Minister of Scotland?" es "John Swinney" con 96%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 96% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Anas Sarwar" con 6%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Next First Minister of Scotland?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.