President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads recent first-round polls for Brazil's October 4 presidential election at 37-47%, closely followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 30-40%, positioning them as frontrunners to advance to the October 25 runoff under the rule requiring over 50% for outright victory. Late April surveys from AtlasIntel and Nexus highlight the narrowing gap, with high undecided rates of 9-19% signaling volatility amid economic pressures and Lula's incumbency edge at age 81. Trailing candidates like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema poll under 6%, unlikely to disrupt the top two. Party conventions and the August 16 campaign launch loom as key catalysts for shifts in voter intentions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Qué candidatos avanzarán a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Brasil?
¿Qué candidatos avanzarán a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Brasil?
$300,676 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
85%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
76%
Fernando Haddad
8%
Jair Bolsonaro
3%
Michelle Bolsonaro
3%
Tarcisio de Freitas
3%
$300,676 Vol.
Flavio Bolsonaro
$16,945 Vol.
85%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$128,965 Vol.
76%
Fernando Haddad
$49,509 Vol.
8%
Jair Bolsonaro
$9,523 Vol.
3%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$24,321 Vol.
3%
Tarcisio de Freitas
$71,413 Vol.
3%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads recent first-round polls for Brazil's October 4 presidential election at 37-47%, closely followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 30-40%, positioning them as frontrunners to advance to the October 25 runoff under the rule requiring over 50% for outright victory. Late April surveys from AtlasIntel and Nexus highlight the narrowing gap, with high undecided rates of 9-19% signaling volatility amid economic pressures and Lula's incumbency edge at age 81. Trailing candidates like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema poll under 6%, unlikely to disrupt the top two. Party conventions and the August 16 campaign launch loom as key catalysts for shifts in voter intentions.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Dec 8, 2025, 6:42 PM ET
Volumen
$300,676Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 8, 2025, 6:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads recent first-round polls for Brazil's October 4 presidential election at 37-47%, closely followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 30-40%, positioning them as frontrunners to advance to the October 25 runoff under the rule requiring over 50% for outright victory. Late April surveys from AtlasIntel and Nexus highlight the narrowing gap, with high undecided rates of 9-19% signaling volatility amid economic pressures and Lula's incumbency edge at age 81. Trailing candidates like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema poll under 6%, unlikely to disrupt the top two. Party conventions and the August 16 campaign launch loom as key catalysts for shifts in voter intentions.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$300,676Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 8, 2025, 6:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads recent first-round polls for Brazil's October 4 presidential election at 37-47%, closely followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 30-40%, positioning them as frontrunners to advance to the October 25 runoff under the rule requiring over 50% for outright victory. Late April surveys from AtlasIntel and Nexus highlight the narrowing gap, with high undecided rates of 9-19% signaling volatility amid economic pressures and Lula's incumbency edge at age 81. Trailing candidates like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema poll under 6%, unlikely to disrupt the top two. Party conventions and the August 16 campaign launch loom as key catalysts for shifts in voter intentions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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