Recent French polling shows Jordan Bardella of the National Rally leading first-round intentions at 32-35 percent amid strong party momentum on immigration and economic issues, while Édouard Philippe of Horizons trails at 13-19 percent as the leading center-right alternative. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has gained ground on the radical left, narrowing the gap for second place in some surveys. Marine Le Pen’s pending appeal on her ineligibility ruling, due July 7, 2026, keeps RN succession fluid. A crowded field of declared candidates fragments the center and moderate right, complicating any unified challenge in a potential runoff. Traders price a competitive outcome because historical “republican front” dynamics and coalition-building requirements in the second round remain decisive variables ahead of the April 2027 vote.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoParis appeals court sets July 7 verdict date for Marine Le Pen's appeal trial
Marine Le Pen dips to 6%2%
The court announced the verdict date for Le Pen's appeal trial, heightening uncertainty about her presidential bid and boosting Bardella's prospects as her potential replacement, impacting their market prices.
Marine Le Pen’s appeal trial opens in Paris, putting 2027 presidential bid at risk
Marine Le Pen drops to 9%7%
Marine Le Pen began her appeal trial against a conviction for misusing EU funds, with the outcome potentially barring her from running in the 2027 presidential election. This legal uncertainty led to a decline in her market price and increased interest in her protege Jordan Bardella as a possible replacement candidate.
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