AfD's sustained lead in state-level opinion polls, consistently placing the party in the mid-to-high 30s while SPD trails in the mid-20s, underpins the market's strong implied probability for an AfD plurality in the September 20, 2026 Landtag election. Recent surveys from Infratest dimap and Forsa confirm this positioning in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, an eastern state where AfD support has consolidated amid challenges to the incumbent SPD-Left coalition under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig. Limited prospects for viable anti-AfD majorities, given weak performances by smaller parties such as the Greens and FDP, further reinforce trader expectations. With roughly three months until the vote, no major polling shifts or national events have altered the trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Mecklemburgo-Pomerania Occidental
Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Mecklemburgo-Pomerania Occidental
AfD 87%
SPD 13%
CDU <1%
Linke <1%
$239,383 Vol.
$239,383 Vol.
20 sep 2026
AfD
87%
SPD
13%
CDU
1%
Linke
<1%
Grüne
<1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
BSW
<1%
AfD 87%
SPD 13%
CDU <1%
Linke <1%
$239,383 Vol.
$239,383 Vol.
20 sep 2026
AfD
$10,485 Vol.
87%
SPD
$38,401 Vol.
13%
CDU
$29,711 Vol.
1%
Linke
$13,234 Vol.
<1%
Grüne
$54,808 Vol.
<1%
FDP
$54,255 Vol.
<1%
FW
$24,664 Vol.
<1%
BSW
$13,828 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).AfD's sustained lead in state-level opinion polls, consistently placing the party in the mid-to-high 30s while SPD trails in the mid-20s, underpins the market's strong implied probability for an AfD plurality in the September 20, 2026 Landtag election. Recent surveys from Infratest dimap and Forsa confirm this positioning in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, an eastern state where AfD support has consolidated amid challenges to the incumbent SPD-Left coalition under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig. Limited prospects for viable anti-AfD majorities, given weak performances by smaller parties such as the Greens and FDP, further reinforce trader expectations. With roughly three months until the vote, no major polling shifts or national events have altered the trajectory.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Mercado abierto: Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Volumen
$239,383Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).AfD's sustained lead in state-level opinion polls, consistently placing the party in the mid-to-high 30s while SPD trails in the mid-20s, underpins the market's strong implied probability for an AfD plurality in the September 20, 2026 Landtag election. Recent surveys from Infratest dimap and Forsa confirm this positioning in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, an eastern state where AfD support has consolidated amid challenges to the incumbent SPD-Left coalition under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig. Limited prospects for viable anti-AfD majorities, given weak performances by smaller parties such as the Greens and FDP, further reinforce trader expectations. With roughly three months until the vote, no major polling shifts or national events have altered the trajectory.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volumen
$239,383Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...AfD's sustained lead in state-level opinion polls, consistently placing the party in the mid-to-high 30s while SPD trails in the mid-20s, underpins the market's strong implied probability for an AfD plurality in the September 20, 2026 Landtag election. Recent surveys from Infratest dimap and Forsa confirm this positioning in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, an eastern state where AfD support has consolidated amid challenges to the incumbent SPD-Left coalition under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig. Limited prospects for viable anti-AfD majorities, given weak performances by smaller parties such as the Greens and FDP, further reinforce trader expectations. With roughly three months until the vote, no major polling shifts or national events have altered the trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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