Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a lowest temperature of 20°C in Shanghai on May 14 (97.5% implied probability), driven by the latest numerical weather prediction models from sources like AccuWeather and Weather.com, which forecast daily lows of 67–68°F (19.4–20°C) amid persistent cloudy, humid conditions that inhibit nocturnal radiative cooling. Early morning observations around 23°C (73°F) confirm the overnight minimum held near 20°C, with overcast skies and light winds maintaining stable boundary layer temperatures well above May climatological averages of 17°C. High humidity (60–70%) and urban heat island effects further bolster this positioning. Realistic challenges would require unexpected clearing overnight or cold air advection, both unlikely per current model ensembles, with final observations from Shanghai Pudong or Xujiahui stations resolving the market by midnight local time.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Shanghái el 14 de mayo?
¿Temperatura más baja en Shanghái el 14 de mayo?
20°C 97.5%
19°C 4.3%
18°C 3.6%
15°C o menos <1%
$13,887 Vol.
$13,887 Vol.
14 may 2026
15°C o menos
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
4%
19°C
4%
20°C
98%
20°C 97.5%
19°C 4.3%
18°C 3.6%
15°C o menos <1%
$13,887 Vol.
$13,887 Vol.
14 may 2026
15°C o menos
$298 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$283 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$856 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,013 Vol.
4%
19°C
$484 Vol.
4%
20°C
$696 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a lowest temperature of 20°C in Shanghai on May 14 (97.5% implied probability), driven by the latest numerical weather prediction models from sources like AccuWeather and Weather.com, which forecast daily lows of 67–68°F (19.4–20°C) amid persistent cloudy, humid conditions that inhibit nocturnal radiative cooling. Early morning observations around 23°C (73°F) confirm the overnight minimum held near 20°C, with overcast skies and light winds maintaining stable boundary layer temperatures well above May climatological averages of 17°C. High humidity (60–70%) and urban heat island effects further bolster this positioning. Realistic challenges would require unexpected clearing overnight or cold air advection, both unlikely per current model ensembles, with final observations from Shanghai Pudong or Xujiahui stations resolving the market by midnight local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 11, 2026, 6:19 PM ET
Volumen
$13,887Fecha de finalización
14 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 11, 2026, 6:19 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a lowest temperature of 20°C in Shanghai on May 14 (97.5% implied probability), driven by the latest numerical weather prediction models from sources like AccuWeather and Weather.com, which forecast daily lows of 67–68°F (19.4–20°C) amid persistent cloudy, humid conditions that inhibit nocturnal radiative cooling. Early morning observations around 23°C (73°F) confirm the overnight minimum held near 20°C, with overcast skies and light winds maintaining stable boundary layer temperatures well above May climatological averages of 17°C. High humidity (60–70%) and urban heat island effects further bolster this positioning. Realistic challenges would require unexpected clearing overnight or cold air advection, both unlikely per current model ensembles, with final observations from Shanghai Pudong or Xujiahui stations resolving the market by midnight local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$13,887Fecha de finalización
14 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 11, 2026, 6:19 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a lowest temperature of 20°C in Shanghai on May 14 (97.5% implied probability), driven by the latest numerical weather prediction models from sources like AccuWeather and Weather.com, which forecast daily lows of 67–68°F (19.4–20°C) amid persistent cloudy, humid conditions that inhibit nocturnal radiative cooling. Early morning observations around 23°C (73°F) confirm the overnight minimum held near 20°C, with overcast skies and light winds maintaining stable boundary layer temperatures well above May climatological averages of 17°C. High humidity (60–70%) and urban heat island effects further bolster this positioning. Realistic challenges would require unexpected clearing overnight or cold air advection, both unlikely per current model ensembles, with final observations from Shanghai Pudong or Xujiahui stations resolving the market by midnight local time.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes