Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 48-51°F for New York City's lowest temperature on May 2, with 50-51°F leading at 32.5% implied probability and 48-49°F close behind at 25%, reflecting the latest National Weather Service forecast projecting an overnight low near 47°F under partly cloudy skies and northwest winds around 9 mph that limit radiative cooling. This genuine uncertainty arises from ensemble spread across GFS and ECMWF models, where variations in boundary layer mixing, residual low clouds, and urban heat island effects in Central Park observations could nudge the minimum up or down by 2-3°F. Climatological May 2 lows average 52°F, but a persistent cool upper-air pattern maintains below-normal expectations; watch overnight model updates and the morning NWS briefing for potential shifts before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoLowest temperature in NYC on May 2?
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 2?
50-51°F 27.1%
48-49°F 23%
52-53°F 14%
46-47°F 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 may 2026
39°F or below
1%
40-41°F
1%
42-43°F
2%
44-45°F
5%
46-47°F
8%
48-49°F
23%
50-51°F
27%
52-53°F
14%
54-55°F
4%
56-57°F
1%
58°F or higher
1%
50-51°F 27.1%
48-49°F 23%
52-53°F 14%
46-47°F 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 may 2026
39°F or below
$327 Vol.
1%
40-41°F
$258 Vol.
1%
42-43°F
$607 Vol.
2%
44-45°F
$125 Vol.
5%
46-47°F
$151 Vol.
8%
48-49°F
$118 Vol.
23%
50-51°F
$241 Vol.
27%
52-53°F
$15 Vol.
14%
54-55°F
$71 Vol.
4%
56-57°F
$515 Vol.
1%
58°F or higher
$698 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 48-51°F for New York City's lowest temperature on May 2, with 50-51°F leading at 32.5% implied probability and 48-49°F close behind at 25%, reflecting the latest National Weather Service forecast projecting an overnight low near 47°F under partly cloudy skies and northwest winds around 9 mph that limit radiative cooling. This genuine uncertainty arises from ensemble spread across GFS and ECMWF models, where variations in boundary layer mixing, residual low clouds, and urban heat island effects in Central Park observations could nudge the minimum up or down by 2-3°F. Climatological May 2 lows average 52°F, but a persistent cool upper-air pattern maintains below-normal expectations; watch overnight model updates and the morning NWS briefing for potential shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volumen
$3,126Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 48-51°F for New York City's lowest temperature on May 2, with 50-51°F leading at 32.5% implied probability and 48-49°F close behind at 25%, reflecting the latest National Weather Service forecast projecting an overnight low near 47°F under partly cloudy skies and northwest winds around 9 mph that limit radiative cooling. This genuine uncertainty arises from ensemble spread across GFS and ECMWF models, where variations in boundary layer mixing, residual low clouds, and urban heat island effects in Central Park observations could nudge the minimum up or down by 2-3°F. Climatological May 2 lows average 52°F, but a persistent cool upper-air pattern maintains below-normal expectations; watch overnight model updates and the morning NWS briefing for potential shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$3,126Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 48-51°F for New York City's lowest temperature on May 2, with 50-51°F leading at 32.5% implied probability and 48-49°F close behind at 25%, reflecting the latest National Weather Service forecast projecting an overnight low near 47°F under partly cloudy skies and northwest winds around 9 mph that limit radiative cooling. This genuine uncertainty arises from ensemble spread across GFS and ECMWF models, where variations in boundary layer mixing, residual low clouds, and urban heat island effects in Central Park observations could nudge the minimum up or down by 2-3°F. Climatological May 2 lows average 52°F, but a persistent cool upper-air pattern maintains below-normal expectations; watch overnight model updates and the morning NWS briefing for potential shifts before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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