Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in London's overnight minimum temperature on May 16, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 3–6°C (each ~24–26%) due to a recent influx of Arctic air via northerly airflow, as detailed in Met Office forecasts showing weekday lows of 6–7°C transitioning to potential radiative cooling under sunny intervals. Differentiating factors include model ensemble spread—ECMWF and GFS diverge on overnight cloud cover evolution, with clearer skies favoring deeper cools near 3–4°C via enhanced longwave radiation loss, while persistent low-level stratus or light showers could cap lows at 5–6°C. Below-average May conditions (historical norms ~8–9°C) stem from a blocking high steering cold air southward; watch Met Office's evening update and Friday model refreshes for shifts ahead of resolution using official Heathrow observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Londres el 16 de mayo?
¿Temperatura más baja en Londres el 16 de mayo?
5°C 35%
6°C 22%
7°C 21%
8°C 21%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 may 2026
0°C o menos
<1%
1°C
1%
2°C
<1%
3°C
1%
4°C
3%
5°C
19%
6°C
27%
7°C
21%
8°C
15%
9°C
10%
10°C o más
1%
5°C 35%
6°C 22%
7°C 21%
8°C 21%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 may 2026
0°C o menos
$71 Vol.
<1%
1°C
$432 Vol.
1%
2°C
$201 Vol.
<1%
3°C
$70 Vol.
1%
4°C
$12 Vol.
3%
5°C
$3 Vol.
19%
6°C
$8 Vol.
27%
7°C
$19 Vol.
21%
8°C
$10 Vol.
15%
9°C
$0 Vol.
10%
10°C o más
$84 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in London's overnight minimum temperature on May 16, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 3–6°C (each ~24–26%) due to a recent influx of Arctic air via northerly airflow, as detailed in Met Office forecasts showing weekday lows of 6–7°C transitioning to potential radiative cooling under sunny intervals. Differentiating factors include model ensemble spread—ECMWF and GFS diverge on overnight cloud cover evolution, with clearer skies favoring deeper cools near 3–4°C via enhanced longwave radiation loss, while persistent low-level stratus or light showers could cap lows at 5–6°C. Below-average May conditions (historical norms ~8–9°C) stem from a blocking high steering cold air southward; watch Met Office's evening update and Friday model refreshes for shifts ahead of resolution using official Heathrow observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$910Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in London's overnight minimum temperature on May 16, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 3–6°C (each ~24–26%) due to a recent influx of Arctic air via northerly airflow, as detailed in Met Office forecasts showing weekday lows of 6–7°C transitioning to potential radiative cooling under sunny intervals. Differentiating factors include model ensemble spread—ECMWF and GFS diverge on overnight cloud cover evolution, with clearer skies favoring deeper cools near 3–4°C via enhanced longwave radiation loss, while persistent low-level stratus or light showers could cap lows at 5–6°C. Below-average May conditions (historical norms ~8–9°C) stem from a blocking high steering cold air southward; watch Met Office's evening update and Friday model refreshes for shifts ahead of resolution using official Heathrow observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$910Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in London's overnight minimum temperature on May 16, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 3–6°C (each ~24–26%) due to a recent influx of Arctic air via northerly airflow, as detailed in Met Office forecasts showing weekday lows of 6–7°C transitioning to potential radiative cooling under sunny intervals. Differentiating factors include model ensemble spread—ECMWF and GFS diverge on overnight cloud cover evolution, with clearer skies favoring deeper cools near 3–4°C via enhanced longwave radiation loss, while persistent low-level stratus or light showers could cap lows at 5–6°C. Below-average May conditions (historical norms ~8–9°C) stem from a blocking high steering cold air southward; watch Met Office's evening update and Friday model refreshes for shifts ahead of resolution using official Heathrow observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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