Incumbent Rep. Troy Carter's strong position in the D+17 Cook Partisan Voter Index Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, combined with the cancellation of the Republican primary due to no candidates filing by the February 13 deadline, drives trader consensus to favor the Democratic Party at 74.5% implied probability for the November 3 general election. The upcoming closed Democratic primary on May 16 pits Carter against challenger Renada Collins, where Carter's $433,000 cash-on-hand advantage as of late March underscores his frontrunner status amid limited polling. Yesterday's Supreme Court ruling invalidating Louisiana's second majority-Black district preserved LA-02's contours, removing redistricting uncertainty without altering its Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others, though national midterm dynamics sustain modest Republican odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoLA-02 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
LA-02 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$35,668 Vol.
$35,668 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
75%
Partido Republicano
26%
$35,668 Vol.
$35,668 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$12,970 Vol.
75%
Partido Republicano
$22,699 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Troy Carter's strong position in the D+17 Cook Partisan Voter Index Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, combined with the cancellation of the Republican primary due to no candidates filing by the February 13 deadline, drives trader consensus to favor the Democratic Party at 74.5% implied probability for the November 3 general election. The upcoming closed Democratic primary on May 16 pits Carter against challenger Renada Collins, where Carter's $433,000 cash-on-hand advantage as of late March underscores his frontrunner status amid limited polling. Yesterday's Supreme Court ruling invalidating Louisiana's second majority-Black district preserved LA-02's contours, removing redistricting uncertainty without altering its Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others, though national midterm dynamics sustain modest Republican odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$35,668Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Troy Carter's strong position in the D+17 Cook Partisan Voter Index Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, combined with the cancellation of the Republican primary due to no candidates filing by the February 13 deadline, drives trader consensus to favor the Democratic Party at 74.5% implied probability for the November 3 general election. The upcoming closed Democratic primary on May 16 pits Carter against challenger Renada Collins, where Carter's $433,000 cash-on-hand advantage as of late March underscores his frontrunner status amid limited polling. Yesterday's Supreme Court ruling invalidating Louisiana's second majority-Black district preserved LA-02's contours, removing redistricting uncertainty without altering its Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others, though national midterm dynamics sustain modest Republican odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$35,668Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Troy Carter's strong position in the D+17 Cook Partisan Voter Index Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, combined with the cancellation of the Republican primary due to no candidates filing by the February 13 deadline, drives trader consensus to favor the Democratic Party at 74.5% implied probability for the November 3 general election. The upcoming closed Democratic primary on May 16 pits Carter against challenger Renada Collins, where Carter's $433,000 cash-on-hand advantage as of late March underscores his frontrunner status amid limited polling. Yesterday's Supreme Court ruling invalidating Louisiana's second majority-Black district preserved LA-02's contours, removing redistricting uncertainty without altering its Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others, though national midterm dynamics sustain modest Republican odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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