As of April 30, 2026, USGS records show five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide year-to-date, with recent activity elevated: M7.4 events off Japan on April 20 and Indonesia on April 1, following M7.3 Vanuatu on March 30 and others earlier. This cluster in subduction zones has boosted trader sentiment toward 8+ total by June 30 (78.9% implied probability), aligning with historical USGS averages of about 15 M7+ quakes annually—implying roughly 2.5 more expected over the next two months, though Poisson-distributed seismicity could yield 3+. The 15.8% odds on exactly seven reflect balanced uncertainty in global plate boundary ruptures, with continuous USGS monitoring providing real-time updates but no short-term forecasting capability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos terremotos de 7.0 o más para el 30 de junio?
¿Cuántos terremotos de 7.0 o más para el 30 de junio?
$1,847,223 Vol.
$1,847,223 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Título del grupo: 7
16%
8+
78%
$1,847,223 Vol.
$1,847,223 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Título del grupo: 7
$284,851 Vol.
16%
8+
$548,787 Vol.
78%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.As of April 30, 2026, USGS records show five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide year-to-date, with recent activity elevated: M7.4 events off Japan on April 20 and Indonesia on April 1, following M7.3 Vanuatu on March 30 and others earlier. This cluster in subduction zones has boosted trader sentiment toward 8+ total by June 30 (78.9% implied probability), aligning with historical USGS averages of about 15 M7+ quakes annually—implying roughly 2.5 more expected over the next two months, though Poisson-distributed seismicity could yield 3+. The 15.8% odds on exactly seven reflect balanced uncertainty in global plate boundary ruptures, with continuous USGS monitoring providing real-time updates but no short-term forecasting capability.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ET
Volumen
$1,847,223Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.As of April 30, 2026, USGS records show five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide year-to-date, with recent activity elevated: M7.4 events off Japan on April 20 and Indonesia on April 1, following M7.3 Vanuatu on March 30 and others earlier. This cluster in subduction zones has boosted trader sentiment toward 8+ total by June 30 (78.9% implied probability), aligning with historical USGS averages of about 15 M7+ quakes annually—implying roughly 2.5 more expected over the next two months, though Poisson-distributed seismicity could yield 3+. The 15.8% odds on exactly seven reflect balanced uncertainty in global plate boundary ruptures, with continuous USGS monitoring providing real-time updates but no short-term forecasting capability.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volumen
$1,847,223Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of April 30, 2026, USGS records show five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide year-to-date, with recent activity elevated: M7.4 events off Japan on April 20 and Indonesia on April 1, following M7.3 Vanuatu on March 30 and others earlier. This cluster in subduction zones has boosted trader sentiment toward 8+ total by June 30 (78.9% implied probability), aligning with historical USGS averages of about 15 M7+ quakes annually—implying roughly 2.5 more expected over the next two months, though Poisson-distributed seismicity could yield 3+. The 15.8% odds on exactly seven reflect balanced uncertainty in global plate boundary ruptures, with continuous USGS monitoring providing real-time updates but no short-term forecasting capability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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