Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes from April 27 to May 3 (71% implied probability), driven by USGS data showing none recorded in the first four days of the period amid subdued global seismic activity—no M6.5+ events since the M7.4 near Miyako, Japan on April 20. This aligns with historical baselines from USGS statistics: approximately 136 M6.0–6.9 quakes annually worldwide (roughly 2.6 per week), but M6.5+ events rarer at an estimated 40–50 per year (~0.8 weekly average under Poisson distribution), with 2026 pacing below average so far (seven through late April). Short-term earthquake forecasting remains inherently uncertain due to random fault slip dynamics, though real-time USGS monitoring could detect precursors like swarms. Key resolution hinges on moment magnitude confirmations through May 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 27 - May 3?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 27 - May 3?
0 71%
1 24%
2 7%
3 1.3%
$23,340 Vol.
$23,340 Vol.
3 may 2026
0
71%
1
24%
2
7%
3
1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
0 71%
1 24%
2 7%
3 1.3%
$23,340 Vol.
$23,340 Vol.
3 may 2026
0
$8,703 Vol.
71%
1
$2,505 Vol.
24%
2
$2,059 Vol.
7%
3
$1,064 Vol.
1%
4
$2,285 Vol.
<1%
5
$2,711 Vol.
<1%
>5
$4,013 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes from April 27 to May 3 (71% implied probability), driven by USGS data showing none recorded in the first four days of the period amid subdued global seismic activity—no M6.5+ events since the M7.4 near Miyako, Japan on April 20. This aligns with historical baselines from USGS statistics: approximately 136 M6.0–6.9 quakes annually worldwide (roughly 2.6 per week), but M6.5+ events rarer at an estimated 40–50 per year (~0.8 weekly average under Poisson distribution), with 2026 pacing below average so far (seven through late April). Short-term earthquake forecasting remains inherently uncertain due to random fault slip dynamics, though real-time USGS monitoring could detect precursors like swarms. Key resolution hinges on moment magnitude confirmations through May 3.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Apr 24, 2026, 6:19 PM ET
Volumen
$23,340Fecha de finalización
3 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 24, 2026, 6:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes from April 27 to May 3 (71% implied probability), driven by USGS data showing none recorded in the first four days of the period amid subdued global seismic activity—no M6.5+ events since the M7.4 near Miyako, Japan on April 20. This aligns with historical baselines from USGS statistics: approximately 136 M6.0–6.9 quakes annually worldwide (roughly 2.6 per week), but M6.5+ events rarer at an estimated 40–50 per year (~0.8 weekly average under Poisson distribution), with 2026 pacing below average so far (seven through late April). Short-term earthquake forecasting remains inherently uncertain due to random fault slip dynamics, though real-time USGS monitoring could detect precursors like swarms. Key resolution hinges on moment magnitude confirmations through May 3.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$23,340Fecha de finalización
3 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 24, 2026, 6:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes from April 27 to May 3 (71% implied probability), driven by USGS data showing none recorded in the first four days of the period amid subdued global seismic activity—no M6.5+ events since the M7.4 near Miyako, Japan on April 20. This aligns with historical baselines from USGS statistics: approximately 136 M6.0–6.9 quakes annually worldwide (roughly 2.6 per week), but M6.5+ events rarer at an estimated 40–50 per year (~0.8 weekly average under Poisson distribution), with 2026 pacing below average so far (seven through late April). Short-term earthquake forecasting remains inherently uncertain due to random fault slip dynamics, though real-time USGS monitoring could detect precursors like swarms. Key resolution hinges on moment magnitude confirmations through May 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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