Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Warsaw Chopin Airport's highest temperature on May 2 clustering around 24-26°C under a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, advecting warmer continental air masses and limiting cloud cover for enhanced solar heating—this drives the market-implied odds with 25°C (34.5%), 24°C (28.5%), and 26°C (21.5%) leading amid genuine uncertainty. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on afternoon boundary layer mixing, exact insolation duration, and light southerly winds potentially boosting peaks to 26°C or capping them at 24°C if cirrus clouds intrude. Above the early May climatological average of 18-19°C, watch IMGW updates and tomorrow's 12Z radiosonde for refined guidance before official observations resolve the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 2?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 2?
25°C 34%
24°C 29%
26°C 22%
23°C 11%
NUEVO
$12,356 Vol.
NUEVO
$12,356 Vol.
2 may 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
11%
24°C
29%
25°C
34%
26°C
22%
27°C
4%
28°C or higher
2%
25°C 34%
24°C 29%
26°C 22%
23°C 11%
NUEVO
$12,356 Vol.
NUEVO
$12,356 Vol.
2 may 2026
18°C or below
$3,712 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,257 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$961 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$393 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,468 Vol.
1%
23°C
$501 Vol.
11%
24°C
$1,317 Vol.
29%
25°C
$799 Vol.
34%
26°C
$681 Vol.
22%
27°C
$487 Vol.
4%
28°C or higher
$780 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Warsaw Chopin Airport's highest temperature on May 2 clustering around 24-26°C under a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, advecting warmer continental air masses and limiting cloud cover for enhanced solar heating—this drives the market-implied odds with 25°C (34.5%), 24°C (28.5%), and 26°C (21.5%) leading amid genuine uncertainty. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on afternoon boundary layer mixing, exact insolation duration, and light southerly winds potentially boosting peaks to 26°C or capping them at 24°C if cirrus clouds intrude. Above the early May climatological average of 18-19°C, watch IMGW updates and tomorrow's 12Z radiosonde for refined guidance before official observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volumen
$12,356Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Warsaw Chopin Airport's highest temperature on May 2 clustering around 24-26°C under a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, advecting warmer continental air masses and limiting cloud cover for enhanced solar heating—this drives the market-implied odds with 25°C (34.5%), 24°C (28.5%), and 26°C (21.5%) leading amid genuine uncertainty. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on afternoon boundary layer mixing, exact insolation duration, and light southerly winds potentially boosting peaks to 26°C or capping them at 24°C if cirrus clouds intrude. Above the early May climatological average of 18-19°C, watch IMGW updates and tomorrow's 12Z radiosonde for refined guidance before official observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$12,356Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Warsaw Chopin Airport's highest temperature on May 2 clustering around 24-26°C under a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, advecting warmer continental air masses and limiting cloud cover for enhanced solar heating—this drives the market-implied odds with 25°C (34.5%), 24°C (28.5%), and 26°C (21.5%) leading amid genuine uncertainty. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on afternoon boundary layer mixing, exact insolation duration, and light southerly winds potentially boosting peaks to 26°C or capping them at 24°C if cirrus clouds intrude. Above the early May climatological average of 18-19°C, watch IMGW updates and tomorrow's 12Z radiosonde for refined guidance before official observations resolve the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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