Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models project Warsaw's highest temperature on May 15 at around 20°C, aligning with trader consensus where 20°C holds a 39.5% implied probability, ahead of 19°C (27.5%) and 21°C (24.5%). Southerly winds are advecting mild air masses amid partial cloud cover, consistent with mid-May climatological averages of 19°C highs at Warsaw Chopin Airport. Yesterday's drizzle and 18°C maximum prompted refined model runs showing slight warming trends and lower precipitation odds, boosting probabilities for the 19–21°C cluster. Inherent forecast uncertainty from shower timing persists; IMGW updates and real-time observations will sharpen resolution as the diurnal cycle unfolds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 15?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 15?
20°C 38%
19°C 28%
21°C 25%
18°C 4.9%
NUEVO
$15,639 Vol.
NUEVO
$15,639 Vol.
15 may 2026
15°C or below
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
5%
19°C
28%
20°C
38%
21°C
25%
22°C
5%
23°C
3%
24°C
1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 38%
19°C 28%
21°C 25%
18°C 4.9%
NUEVO
$15,639 Vol.
NUEVO
$15,639 Vol.
15 may 2026
15°C or below
$645 Vol.
1%
16°C
$407 Vol.
1%
17°C
$710 Vol.
1%
18°C
$1,097 Vol.
5%
19°C
$2,731 Vol.
28%
20°C
$1,141 Vol.
38%
21°C
$1,630 Vol.
25%
22°C
$1,636 Vol.
5%
23°C
$4,748 Vol.
3%
24°C
$488 Vol.
1%
25°C or higher
$404 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models project Warsaw's highest temperature on May 15 at around 20°C, aligning with trader consensus where 20°C holds a 39.5% implied probability, ahead of 19°C (27.5%) and 21°C (24.5%). Southerly winds are advecting mild air masses amid partial cloud cover, consistent with mid-May climatological averages of 19°C highs at Warsaw Chopin Airport. Yesterday's drizzle and 18°C maximum prompted refined model runs showing slight warming trends and lower precipitation odds, boosting probabilities for the 19–21°C cluster. Inherent forecast uncertainty from shower timing persists; IMGW updates and real-time observations will sharpen resolution as the diurnal cycle unfolds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volumen
$15,639Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models project Warsaw's highest temperature on May 15 at around 20°C, aligning with trader consensus where 20°C holds a 39.5% implied probability, ahead of 19°C (27.5%) and 21°C (24.5%). Southerly winds are advecting mild air masses amid partial cloud cover, consistent with mid-May climatological averages of 19°C highs at Warsaw Chopin Airport. Yesterday's drizzle and 18°C maximum prompted refined model runs showing slight warming trends and lower precipitation odds, boosting probabilities for the 19–21°C cluster. Inherent forecast uncertainty from shower timing persists; IMGW updates and real-time observations will sharpen resolution as the diurnal cycle unfolds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$15,639Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models project Warsaw's highest temperature on May 15 at around 20°C, aligning with trader consensus where 20°C holds a 39.5% implied probability, ahead of 19°C (27.5%) and 21°C (24.5%). Southerly winds are advecting mild air masses amid partial cloud cover, consistent with mid-May climatological averages of 19°C highs at Warsaw Chopin Airport. Yesterday's drizzle and 18°C maximum prompted refined model runs showing slight warming trends and lower precipitation odds, boosting probabilities for the 19–21°C cluster. Inherent forecast uncertainty from shower timing persists; IMGW updates and real-time observations will sharpen resolution as the diurnal cycle unfolds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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