Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 23°C (27.5%), 24°C (33.5%), and 25°C (24.0%) for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 15, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-term forecasts and global ensemble models projecting peaks in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge over the Kanto region. Light southerly winds promote mild advection of warmth, but variable cloud cover—potentially from residual mid-level moisture—differentiates outcomes: fuller sun could push 25°C via enhanced insolation and urban heat island effects, while overcast skies cap at 23°C. Recent 48-hour model runs show little divergence from May averages near 23°C, with JMA's 0600 JST update tomorrow likely to sharpen probabilities ahead of official Tokyo station observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 15?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 15?
24°C 36%
23°C 29%
25°C 22%
26°C 8%
NUEVO
$17,164 Vol.
NUEVO
$17,164 Vol.
15 may 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
3%
23°C
29%
24°C
36%
25°C
22%
26°C
8%
27°C or higher
3%
24°C 36%
23°C 29%
25°C 22%
26°C 8%
NUEVO
$17,164 Vol.
NUEVO
$17,164 Vol.
15 may 2026
17°C or below
$1,925 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$2,014 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$746 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$584 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,697 Vol.
1%
22°C
$2,133 Vol.
3%
23°C
$2,489 Vol.
29%
24°C
$1,654 Vol.
36%
25°C
$1,870 Vol.
22%
26°C
$735 Vol.
8%
27°C or higher
$1,358 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 23°C (27.5%), 24°C (33.5%), and 25°C (24.0%) for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 15, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-term forecasts and global ensemble models projecting peaks in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge over the Kanto region. Light southerly winds promote mild advection of warmth, but variable cloud cover—potentially from residual mid-level moisture—differentiates outcomes: fuller sun could push 25°C via enhanced insolation and urban heat island effects, while overcast skies cap at 23°C. Recent 48-hour model runs show little divergence from May averages near 23°C, with JMA's 0600 JST update tomorrow likely to sharpen probabilities ahead of official Tokyo station observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volumen
$17,164Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 23°C (27.5%), 24°C (33.5%), and 25°C (24.0%) for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 15, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-term forecasts and global ensemble models projecting peaks in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge over the Kanto region. Light southerly winds promote mild advection of warmth, but variable cloud cover—potentially from residual mid-level moisture—differentiates outcomes: fuller sun could push 25°C via enhanced insolation and urban heat island effects, while overcast skies cap at 23°C. Recent 48-hour model runs show little divergence from May averages near 23°C, with JMA's 0600 JST update tomorrow likely to sharpen probabilities ahead of official Tokyo station observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$17,164Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 23°C (27.5%), 24°C (33.5%), and 25°C (24.0%) for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 15, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-term forecasts and global ensemble models projecting peaks in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge over the Kanto region. Light southerly winds promote mild advection of warmth, but variable cloud cover—potentially from residual mid-level moisture—differentiates outcomes: fuller sun could push 25°C via enhanced insolation and urban heat island effects, while overcast skies cap at 23°C. Recent 48-hour model runs show little divergence from May averages near 23°C, with JMA's 0600 JST update tomorrow likely to sharpen probabilities ahead of official Tokyo station observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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