Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 25°C in Shanghai on May 1, with 98.5% implied probability, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) latest official forecast projecting exactly that under partly cloudy skies with moderate winds. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models clusters tightly around 24–26°C, reflecting consensus on upper-air stability and limited convective activity following late-April cool spells with northerly flows. Early May climatology supports this, with historical highs averaging 23–25°C amid transitioning spring patterns. Realistic challenges include greater-than-expected afternoon solar insolation from clearing clouds pushing toward 26°C+, or persistent overcast capping below 24°C; hourly observations from Shanghai's Xujiahui station will refine this as the day progresses.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Shanghái el 1 de mayo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Shanghái el 1 de mayo?
25°C 98.8%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$139,794 Vol.
$139,794 Vol.
1 may 2026
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
99%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C o más
<1%
25°C 98.8%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$139,794 Vol.
$139,794 Vol.
1 may 2026
22°C
$22,531 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$23,272 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$26,536 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$11,221 Vol.
99%
26°C
$12,786 Vol.
1%
27°C
$10,190 Vol.
1%
28°C
$6,826 Vol.
<1%
29°C o más
$8,954 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 25°C in Shanghai on May 1, with 98.5% implied probability, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) latest official forecast projecting exactly that under partly cloudy skies with moderate winds. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models clusters tightly around 24–26°C, reflecting consensus on upper-air stability and limited convective activity following late-April cool spells with northerly flows. Early May climatology supports this, with historical highs averaging 23–25°C amid transitioning spring patterns. Realistic challenges include greater-than-expected afternoon solar insolation from clearing clouds pushing toward 26°C+, or persistent overcast capping below 24°C; hourly observations from Shanghai's Xujiahui station will refine this as the day progresses.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volumen
$139,794Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 25°C in Shanghai on May 1, with 98.5% implied probability, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) latest official forecast projecting exactly that under partly cloudy skies with moderate winds. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models clusters tightly around 24–26°C, reflecting consensus on upper-air stability and limited convective activity following late-April cool spells with northerly flows. Early May climatology supports this, with historical highs averaging 23–25°C amid transitioning spring patterns. Realistic challenges include greater-than-expected afternoon solar insolation from clearing clouds pushing toward 26°C+, or persistent overcast capping below 24°C; hourly observations from Shanghai's Xujiahui station will refine this as the day progresses.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$139,794Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 25°C in Shanghai on May 1, with 98.5% implied probability, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) latest official forecast projecting exactly that under partly cloudy skies with moderate winds. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models clusters tightly around 24–26°C, reflecting consensus on upper-air stability and limited convective activity following late-April cool spells with northerly flows. Early May climatology supports this, with historical highs averaging 23–25°C amid transitioning spring patterns. Realistic challenges include greater-than-expected afternoon solar insolation from clearing clouds pushing toward 26°C+, or persistent overcast capping below 24°C; hourly observations from Shanghai's Xujiahui station will refine this as the day progresses.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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