Latest AEMET forecasts point to a maximum temperature of 20°C at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport on May 2, aligning with ECMWF and GFS model consensus under a stable high-pressure ridge promoting mild conditions with southeasterly winds to 25 km/h and just 5% precipitation risk. Recent 48-hour model runs shifted odds from warmer projections toward 20-21°C due to refined estimates of cloud cover and diurnal heating, creating a tight ensemble spread of ±1-2°C that explains trader sentiment splitting nearly evenly between these outcomes amid historical early-May averages of 20-22°C. This reflects inherent short-range uncertainty in surface observations, with AEMET's May 1 update and overnight ensemble refreshes poised to clarify further before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on May 2?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 2?
20°C 36%
21°C 34%
19°C 13%
22°C 9.3%
NUEVO
$10,829 Vol.
NUEVO
$10,829 Vol.
2 may 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
5%
19°C
13%
20°C
36%
21°C
34%
22°C
9%
23°C
3%
24°C
2%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
<1%
20°C 36%
21°C 34%
19°C 13%
22°C 9.3%
NUEVO
$10,829 Vol.
NUEVO
$10,829 Vol.
2 may 2026
16°C or below
$1,471 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$644 Vol.
1%
18°C
$1,352 Vol.
5%
19°C
$1,500 Vol.
13%
20°C
$740 Vol.
36%
21°C
$608 Vol.
34%
22°C
$761 Vol.
9%
23°C
$863 Vol.
3%
24°C
$1,544 Vol.
2%
25°C
$910 Vol.
1%
26°C or higher
$852 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET forecasts point to a maximum temperature of 20°C at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport on May 2, aligning with ECMWF and GFS model consensus under a stable high-pressure ridge promoting mild conditions with southeasterly winds to 25 km/h and just 5% precipitation risk. Recent 48-hour model runs shifted odds from warmer projections toward 20-21°C due to refined estimates of cloud cover and diurnal heating, creating a tight ensemble spread of ±1-2°C that explains trader sentiment splitting nearly evenly between these outcomes amid historical early-May averages of 20-22°C. This reflects inherent short-range uncertainty in surface observations, with AEMET's May 1 update and overnight ensemble refreshes poised to clarify further before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volumen
$10,829Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET forecasts point to a maximum temperature of 20°C at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport on May 2, aligning with ECMWF and GFS model consensus under a stable high-pressure ridge promoting mild conditions with southeasterly winds to 25 km/h and just 5% precipitation risk. Recent 48-hour model runs shifted odds from warmer projections toward 20-21°C due to refined estimates of cloud cover and diurnal heating, creating a tight ensemble spread of ±1-2°C that explains trader sentiment splitting nearly evenly between these outcomes amid historical early-May averages of 20-22°C. This reflects inherent short-range uncertainty in surface observations, with AEMET's May 1 update and overnight ensemble refreshes poised to clarify further before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$10,829Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest AEMET forecasts point to a maximum temperature of 20°C at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport on May 2, aligning with ECMWF and GFS model consensus under a stable high-pressure ridge promoting mild conditions with southeasterly winds to 25 km/h and just 5% precipitation risk. Recent 48-hour model runs shifted odds from warmer projections toward 20-21°C due to refined estimates of cloud cover and diurnal heating, creating a tight ensemble spread of ±1-2°C that explains trader sentiment splitting nearly evenly between these outcomes amid historical early-May averages of 20-22°C. This reflects inherent short-range uncertainty in surface observations, with AEMET's May 1 update and overnight ensemble refreshes poised to clarify further before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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