Latest AEMET and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models project Madrid's highest temperature on May 2 at Barajas Airport—the official measurement site for market resolution—clustering around 20-21°C, fueling the razor-thin trader consensus with 37% implied probability for 20°C and 34.5% for 21°C. This uncertainty arises from ±1-2°C spreads in model outputs, influenced by variable afternoon cloud development, low-level winds from the Atlantic, and boundary layer mixing under typical early-May continental high-pressure ridges, where climatological averages hover near 20.5°C. No major synoptic shifts occurred in the past 48 hours, but intraday AEMET updates and upcoming 12Z model runs could tip the balance before tomorrow's peak heating period.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on May 2?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 2?
20°C 37%
21°C 35%
19°C 16%
22°C 9.6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 may 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
5%
19°C
16%
20°C
37%
21°C
35%
22°C
10%
23°C
3%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
<1%
20°C 37%
21°C 35%
19°C 16%
22°C 9.6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 may 2026
16°C or below
$1,343 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$549 Vol.
1%
18°C
$1,307 Vol.
5%
19°C
$1,415 Vol.
16%
20°C
$624 Vol.
37%
21°C
$505 Vol.
35%
22°C
$686 Vol.
10%
23°C
$819 Vol.
3%
24°C
$1,378 Vol.
1%
25°C
$825 Vol.
1%
26°C or higher
$807 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models project Madrid's highest temperature on May 2 at Barajas Airport—the official measurement site for market resolution—clustering around 20-21°C, fueling the razor-thin trader consensus with 37% implied probability for 20°C and 34.5% for 21°C. This uncertainty arises from ±1-2°C spreads in model outputs, influenced by variable afternoon cloud development, low-level winds from the Atlantic, and boundary layer mixing under typical early-May continental high-pressure ridges, where climatological averages hover near 20.5°C. No major synoptic shifts occurred in the past 48 hours, but intraday AEMET updates and upcoming 12Z model runs could tip the balance before tomorrow's peak heating period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volumen
$9,688Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models project Madrid's highest temperature on May 2 at Barajas Airport—the official measurement site for market resolution—clustering around 20-21°C, fueling the razor-thin trader consensus with 37% implied probability for 20°C and 34.5% for 21°C. This uncertainty arises from ±1-2°C spreads in model outputs, influenced by variable afternoon cloud development, low-level winds from the Atlantic, and boundary layer mixing under typical early-May continental high-pressure ridges, where climatological averages hover near 20.5°C. No major synoptic shifts occurred in the past 48 hours, but intraday AEMET updates and upcoming 12Z model runs could tip the balance before tomorrow's peak heating period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$9,688Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest AEMET and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models project Madrid's highest temperature on May 2 at Barajas Airport—the official measurement site for market resolution—clustering around 20-21°C, fueling the razor-thin trader consensus with 37% implied probability for 20°C and 34.5% for 21°C. This uncertainty arises from ±1-2°C spreads in model outputs, influenced by variable afternoon cloud development, low-level winds from the Atlantic, and boundary layer mixing under typical early-May continental high-pressure ridges, where climatological averages hover near 20.5°C. No major synoptic shifts occurred in the past 48 hours, but intraday AEMET updates and upcoming 12Z model runs could tip the balance before tomorrow's peak heating period.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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