Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a May 2 high of 34°C at 28% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 33°C at 24.5%, reflecting tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models like ECMWF and GFS amid Lagos's transition from dry season heat to early rainy season patterns. NiMet's February 2026 seasonal prediction highlighted a risk of severe dry spells through March-May, sustaining elevated temperatures after April peaks near 35°C, but isolated thunderstorms could cap maxima via increased cloud cover and convective cooling. Moderating sea breezes from the Gulf of Guinea and urban heat island effects in the megacity differentiate outcomes, with historical early-May averages around 32°C occasionally exceeded in persistent dry air. Watch NiMet's daily bulletin and afternoon model updates for shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Lagos on May 2?
Highest temperature in Lagos on May 2?
34°C 34%
33°C 25%
32°C 17%
35°C 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 may 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
4%
30°C
6%
31°C
12%
32°C
17%
33°C
25%
34°C
28%
35°C
12%
36°C
3%
37°C or higher
1%
34°C 34%
33°C 25%
32°C 17%
35°C 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 may 2026
27°C or below
$3,625 Vol.
1%
28°C
$583 Vol.
2%
29°C
$248 Vol.
4%
30°C
$56 Vol.
6%
31°C
$19 Vol.
12%
32°C
$62 Vol.
17%
33°C
$31 Vol.
25%
34°C
$97 Vol.
28%
35°C
$57 Vol.
12%
36°C
$150 Vol.
3%
37°C or higher
$1,396 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a May 2 high of 34°C at 28% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 33°C at 24.5%, reflecting tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models like ECMWF and GFS amid Lagos's transition from dry season heat to early rainy season patterns. NiMet's February 2026 seasonal prediction highlighted a risk of severe dry spells through March-May, sustaining elevated temperatures after April peaks near 35°C, but isolated thunderstorms could cap maxima via increased cloud cover and convective cooling. Moderating sea breezes from the Gulf of Guinea and urban heat island effects in the megacity differentiate outcomes, with historical early-May averages around 32°C occasionally exceeded in persistent dry air. Watch NiMet's daily bulletin and afternoon model updates for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:43 AM ET
Volumen
$6,324Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:43 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a May 2 high of 34°C at 28% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 33°C at 24.5%, reflecting tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models like ECMWF and GFS amid Lagos's transition from dry season heat to early rainy season patterns. NiMet's February 2026 seasonal prediction highlighted a risk of severe dry spells through March-May, sustaining elevated temperatures after April peaks near 35°C, but isolated thunderstorms could cap maxima via increased cloud cover and convective cooling. Moderating sea breezes from the Gulf of Guinea and urban heat island effects in the megacity differentiate outcomes, with historical early-May averages around 32°C occasionally exceeded in persistent dry air. Watch NiMet's daily bulletin and afternoon model updates for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$6,324Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:43 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a May 2 high of 34°C at 28% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 33°C at 24.5%, reflecting tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models like ECMWF and GFS amid Lagos's transition from dry season heat to early rainy season patterns. NiMet's February 2026 seasonal prediction highlighted a risk of severe dry spells through March-May, sustaining elevated temperatures after April peaks near 35°C, but isolated thunderstorms could cap maxima via increased cloud cover and convective cooling. Moderating sea breezes from the Gulf of Guinea and urban heat island effects in the megacity differentiate outcomes, with historical early-May averages around 32°C occasionally exceeded in persistent dry air. Watch NiMet's daily bulletin and afternoon model updates for shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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