Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 12°C (42.5% implied probability) for Istanbul on May 2, driven by the latest forecasts from sources like TimeandDate and AccuWeather projecting daytime highs around 13°C amid mostly cloudy skies and sprinkles. Persistent low-pressure systems over the region, combined with northerly winds advecting cool air from the Black Sea, are limiting solar insolation and suppressing daytime heating, as shown in recent ECMWF and GFS model runs. These conditions follow overcast, rainy weather on May 1 with highs near 12°C, well below May's climatological average of 20°C. Uncertainty remains, with new forecast updates and actual observations from Istanbul Airport (NOAA-monitored for resolution) potentially shifting outcomes by 1-2°C if clouds thin or winds ease.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Estambul el 2 de mayo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Estambul el 2 de mayo?
12°C 41%
13°C 28%
11°C 14%
10°C 9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 may 2026
8°C o menos
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
9%
11°C
14%
12°C
41%
13°C
28%
14°C
8%
15°C
2%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C o más
<1%
12°C 41%
13°C 28%
11°C 14%
10°C 9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 may 2026
8°C o menos
$1,809 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$613 Vol.
1%
10°C
$282 Vol.
9%
11°C
$318 Vol.
14%
12°C
$386 Vol.
41%
13°C
$92 Vol.
28%
14°C
$69 Vol.
8%
15°C
$158 Vol.
2%
16°C
$80 Vol.
1%
17°C
$69 Vol.
<1%
18°C o más
$116 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 12°C (42.5% implied probability) for Istanbul on May 2, driven by the latest forecasts from sources like TimeandDate and AccuWeather projecting daytime highs around 13°C amid mostly cloudy skies and sprinkles. Persistent low-pressure systems over the region, combined with northerly winds advecting cool air from the Black Sea, are limiting solar insolation and suppressing daytime heating, as shown in recent ECMWF and GFS model runs. These conditions follow overcast, rainy weather on May 1 with highs near 12°C, well below May's climatological average of 20°C. Uncertainty remains, with new forecast updates and actual observations from Istanbul Airport (NOAA-monitored for resolution) potentially shifting outcomes by 1-2°C if clouds thin or winds ease.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volumen
$3,992Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 12°C (42.5% implied probability) for Istanbul on May 2, driven by the latest forecasts from sources like TimeandDate and AccuWeather projecting daytime highs around 13°C amid mostly cloudy skies and sprinkles. Persistent low-pressure systems over the region, combined with northerly winds advecting cool air from the Black Sea, are limiting solar insolation and suppressing daytime heating, as shown in recent ECMWF and GFS model runs. These conditions follow overcast, rainy weather on May 1 with highs near 12°C, well below May's climatological average of 20°C. Uncertainty remains, with new forecast updates and actual observations from Istanbul Airport (NOAA-monitored for resolution) potentially shifting outcomes by 1-2°C if clouds thin or winds ease.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$3,992Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 12°C (42.5% implied probability) for Istanbul on May 2, driven by the latest forecasts from sources like TimeandDate and AccuWeather projecting daytime highs around 13°C amid mostly cloudy skies and sprinkles. Persistent low-pressure systems over the region, combined with northerly winds advecting cool air from the Black Sea, are limiting solar insolation and suppressing daytime heating, as shown in recent ECMWF and GFS model runs. These conditions follow overcast, rainy weather on May 1 with highs near 12°C, well below May's climatological average of 20°C. Uncertainty remains, with new forecast updates and actual observations from Istanbul Airport (NOAA-monitored for resolution) potentially shifting outcomes by 1-2°C if clouds thin or winds ease.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes