Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 11°C (59%) and 12°C (35%) as Istanbul's highest temperature on May 1, driven by official Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) forecast of a 12°C maximum under heavy rain, very cloudy skies, and northeast winds at 27 km/h bringing cold air advection. AccuWeather aligns with a 12°C high amid morning showers and thick cloud cover limiting solar heating, while GFS and ECMWF ensembles show 1-2°C spreads confirming subdued diurnal warming well below May climatological norms of 20-22°C. Current observations near Istanbul Airport hover around 12.5°C early morning, with overcast conditions persisting; NOAA airport data will resolve the market, though brief clearing could nudge toward 13°C per model outliers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 1?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 1?
11°C 60%
12°C 37%
13°C 5.5%
14°C 1.0%
NUEVO
$23,797 Vol.
NUEVO
$23,797 Vol.
1 may 2026
11°C
60%
12°C
37%
13°C
6%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
11°C 60%
12°C 37%
13°C 5.5%
14°C 1.0%
NUEVO
$23,797 Vol.
NUEVO
$23,797 Vol.
1 may 2026
11°C
$856 Vol.
60%
12°C
$410 Vol.
37%
13°C
$2,590 Vol.
6%
14°C
$2,020 Vol.
1%
15°C
$960 Vol.
1%
16°C
$429 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$355 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 11°C (59%) and 12°C (35%) as Istanbul's highest temperature on May 1, driven by official Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) forecast of a 12°C maximum under heavy rain, very cloudy skies, and northeast winds at 27 km/h bringing cold air advection. AccuWeather aligns with a 12°C high amid morning showers and thick cloud cover limiting solar heating, while GFS and ECMWF ensembles show 1-2°C spreads confirming subdued diurnal warming well below May climatological norms of 20-22°C. Current observations near Istanbul Airport hover around 12.5°C early morning, with overcast conditions persisting; NOAA airport data will resolve the market, though brief clearing could nudge toward 13°C per model outliers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volumen
$23,797Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 11°C (59%) and 12°C (35%) as Istanbul's highest temperature on May 1, driven by official Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) forecast of a 12°C maximum under heavy rain, very cloudy skies, and northeast winds at 27 km/h bringing cold air advection. AccuWeather aligns with a 12°C high amid morning showers and thick cloud cover limiting solar heating, while GFS and ECMWF ensembles show 1-2°C spreads confirming subdued diurnal warming well below May climatological norms of 20-22°C. Current observations near Istanbul Airport hover around 12.5°C early morning, with overcast conditions persisting; NOAA airport data will resolve the market, though brief clearing could nudge toward 13°C per model outliers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$23,797Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 11°C (59%) and 12°C (35%) as Istanbul's highest temperature on May 1, driven by official Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) forecast of a 12°C maximum under heavy rain, very cloudy skies, and northeast winds at 27 km/h bringing cold air advection. AccuWeather aligns with a 12°C high amid morning showers and thick cloud cover limiting solar heating, while GFS and ECMWF ensembles show 1-2°C spreads confirming subdued diurnal warming well below May climatological norms of 20-22°C. Current observations near Istanbul Airport hover around 12.5°C early morning, with overcast conditions persisting; NOAA airport data will resolve the market, though brief clearing could nudge toward 13°C per model outliers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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