Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, corroborated by China Meteorological Administration guidance, project a consensus high temperature near 28-29°C for Guangzhou on May 2 at Baiyun International Airport, the market's resolution station, driving the tight race between these outcomes amid trader uncertainty. Persistent cloud cover and a 60-70% probability of thunderstorms—hallmarks of the subtropical monsoon region's early rainy season onset—cap solar insolation and suppress peaks, following late April highs averaging 26-27°C during seasonal warming. Model spread reflects divergent scenarios: steady precipitation favoring 28°C, versus partial clearing enabling 29°C, consistent with early May climatological norms of 28-30°C. Updated ensemble runs expected within 24 hours could sharpen implied probabilities before observations finalize.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Guangzhou on May 2?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on May 2?
29°C 37%
28°C 28%
30°C 17%
27°C 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 may 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
12%
28°C
28%
29°C
37%
30°C
17%
31°C
7%
32°C
4%
33°C or higher
1%
29°C 37%
28°C 28%
30°C 17%
27°C 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 may 2026
23°C or below
$894 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$523 Vol.
1%
25°C
$442 Vol.
1%
26°C
$126 Vol.
2%
27°C
$100 Vol.
12%
28°C
$107 Vol.
28%
29°C
$65 Vol.
37%
30°C
$38 Vol.
17%
31°C
$36 Vol.
7%
32°C
$61 Vol.
4%
33°C or higher
$182 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, corroborated by China Meteorological Administration guidance, project a consensus high temperature near 28-29°C for Guangzhou on May 2 at Baiyun International Airport, the market's resolution station, driving the tight race between these outcomes amid trader uncertainty. Persistent cloud cover and a 60-70% probability of thunderstorms—hallmarks of the subtropical monsoon region's early rainy season onset—cap solar insolation and suppress peaks, following late April highs averaging 26-27°C during seasonal warming. Model spread reflects divergent scenarios: steady precipitation favoring 28°C, versus partial clearing enabling 29°C, consistent with early May climatological norms of 28-30°C. Updated ensemble runs expected within 24 hours could sharpen implied probabilities before observations finalize.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:34 AM ET
Volumen
$2,459Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:34 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, corroborated by China Meteorological Administration guidance, project a consensus high temperature near 28-29°C for Guangzhou on May 2 at Baiyun International Airport, the market's resolution station, driving the tight race between these outcomes amid trader uncertainty. Persistent cloud cover and a 60-70% probability of thunderstorms—hallmarks of the subtropical monsoon region's early rainy season onset—cap solar insolation and suppress peaks, following late April highs averaging 26-27°C during seasonal warming. Model spread reflects divergent scenarios: steady precipitation favoring 28°C, versus partial clearing enabling 29°C, consistent with early May climatological norms of 28-30°C. Updated ensemble runs expected within 24 hours could sharpen implied probabilities before observations finalize.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$2,459Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:34 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, corroborated by China Meteorological Administration guidance, project a consensus high temperature near 28-29°C for Guangzhou on May 2 at Baiyun International Airport, the market's resolution station, driving the tight race between these outcomes amid trader uncertainty. Persistent cloud cover and a 60-70% probability of thunderstorms—hallmarks of the subtropical monsoon region's early rainy season onset—cap solar insolation and suppress peaks, following late April highs averaging 26-27°C during seasonal warming. Model spread reflects divergent scenarios: steady precipitation favoring 28°C, versus partial clearing enabling 29°C, consistent with early May climatological norms of 28-30°C. Updated ensemble runs expected within 24 hours could sharpen implied probabilities before observations finalize.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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