Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 54°F or higher at 44% implied probability for Chicago O'Hare's highest temperature on May 2, driven by ensemble guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models clustering forecasts in the low-to-mid 50s°F, below the seasonal norm of 65.5°F. A cool, moist air mass lingering from May 1's showers has suppressed temperatures, with National Weather Service projections near 49°F under partly cloudy skies and northeast winds around 10 mph limiting boundary layer mixing. The 3-5°F spread across outcomes reflects uncertainty in afternoon cloud cover variability and potential clearing, tied to synoptic trough evolution over the Great Lakes; evening model runs and late-day observations could refine odds before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Chicago on May 2?
Highest temperature in Chicago on May 2?
54°F or higher 44%
52-53°F 28%
50-51°F 16%
48-49°F 4.5%
NUEVO
$26,098 Vol.
NUEVO
$26,098 Vol.
2 may 2026
35°F or below
<1%
36-37°F
<1%
38-39°F
<1%
40-41°F
<1%
42-43°F
1%
44-45°F
<1%
46-47°F
3%
48-49°F
5%
50-51°F
16%
52-53°F
28%
54°F or higher
44%
54°F or higher 44%
52-53°F 28%
50-51°F 16%
48-49°F 4.5%
NUEVO
$26,098 Vol.
NUEVO
$26,098 Vol.
2 may 2026
35°F or below
$15,618 Vol.
<1%
36-37°F
$740 Vol.
<1%
38-39°F
$748 Vol.
<1%
40-41°F
$1,205 Vol.
<1%
42-43°F
$827 Vol.
1%
44-45°F
$1,475 Vol.
<1%
46-47°F
$1,264 Vol.
3%
48-49°F
$1,123 Vol.
5%
50-51°F
$685 Vol.
16%
52-53°F
$521 Vol.
28%
54°F or higher
$1,897 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 54°F or higher at 44% implied probability for Chicago O'Hare's highest temperature on May 2, driven by ensemble guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models clustering forecasts in the low-to-mid 50s°F, below the seasonal norm of 65.5°F. A cool, moist air mass lingering from May 1's showers has suppressed temperatures, with National Weather Service projections near 49°F under partly cloudy skies and northeast winds around 10 mph limiting boundary layer mixing. The 3-5°F spread across outcomes reflects uncertainty in afternoon cloud cover variability and potential clearing, tied to synoptic trough evolution over the Great Lakes; evening model runs and late-day observations could refine odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volumen
$26,098Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 54°F or higher at 44% implied probability for Chicago O'Hare's highest temperature on May 2, driven by ensemble guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models clustering forecasts in the low-to-mid 50s°F, below the seasonal norm of 65.5°F. A cool, moist air mass lingering from May 1's showers has suppressed temperatures, with National Weather Service projections near 49°F under partly cloudy skies and northeast winds around 10 mph limiting boundary layer mixing. The 3-5°F spread across outcomes reflects uncertainty in afternoon cloud cover variability and potential clearing, tied to synoptic trough evolution over the Great Lakes; evening model runs and late-day observations could refine odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$26,098Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 54°F or higher at 44% implied probability for Chicago O'Hare's highest temperature on May 2, driven by ensemble guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models clustering forecasts in the low-to-mid 50s°F, below the seasonal norm of 65.5°F. A cool, moist air mass lingering from May 1's showers has suppressed temperatures, with National Weather Service projections near 49°F under partly cloudy skies and northeast winds around 10 mph limiting boundary layer mixing. The 3-5°F spread across outcomes reflects uncertainty in afternoon cloud cover variability and potential clearing, tied to synoptic trough evolution over the Great Lakes; evening model runs and late-day observations could refine odds before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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