Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62.5% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature on May 15 at 31°C or below, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts showing a daytime high near 30–31°C under cloudy skies with south light breezes. Recent observations confirm above-normal warmth, with May 13–14 highs hitting 32–33°C amid sunny conditions from a persistent high-pressure ridge, but an incoming cloud deck is expected to suppress peaks, per model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs. May climatology averages 27–28°C highs, providing context for this mild warming trend. Uncertainties remain in cloud persistence and boundary layer mixing; official station data at Beijing Capital International Airport will resolve the market post-midnight UTC on May 16.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Beijing on May 15?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 15?
31°C or below 63%
32°C 22%
33°C 10%
34°C 6.2%
NUEVO
$12,406 Vol.
NUEVO
$12,406 Vol.
15 may 2026
31°C or below
63%
32°C
22%
33°C
10%
34°C
6%
35°C
1%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
31°C or below 63%
32°C 22%
33°C 10%
34°C 6.2%
NUEVO
$12,406 Vol.
NUEVO
$12,406 Vol.
15 may 2026
31°C or below
$1,670 Vol.
63%
32°C
$598 Vol.
22%
33°C
$1,932 Vol.
10%
34°C
$1,359 Vol.
6%
35°C
$1,299 Vol.
1%
36°C
$929 Vol.
1%
37°C
$1,224 Vol.
1%
38°C
$830 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$987 Vol.
<1%
40°C
$792 Vol.
<1%
41°C or higher
$792 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62.5% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature on May 15 at 31°C or below, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts showing a daytime high near 30–31°C under cloudy skies with south light breezes. Recent observations confirm above-normal warmth, with May 13–14 highs hitting 32–33°C amid sunny conditions from a persistent high-pressure ridge, but an incoming cloud deck is expected to suppress peaks, per model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs. May climatology averages 27–28°C highs, providing context for this mild warming trend. Uncertainties remain in cloud persistence and boundary layer mixing; official station data at Beijing Capital International Airport will resolve the market post-midnight UTC on May 16.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 13, 2026, 12:15 AM ET
Volumen
$12,406Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 12:15 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62.5% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature on May 15 at 31°C or below, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts showing a daytime high near 30–31°C under cloudy skies with south light breezes. Recent observations confirm above-normal warmth, with May 13–14 highs hitting 32–33°C amid sunny conditions from a persistent high-pressure ridge, but an incoming cloud deck is expected to suppress peaks, per model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs. May climatology averages 27–28°C highs, providing context for this mild warming trend. Uncertainties remain in cloud persistence and boundary layer mixing; official station data at Beijing Capital International Airport will resolve the market post-midnight UTC on May 16.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$12,406Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 12:15 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62.5% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature on May 15 at 31°C or below, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts showing a daytime high near 30–31°C under cloudy skies with south light breezes. Recent observations confirm above-normal warmth, with May 13–14 highs hitting 32–33°C amid sunny conditions from a persistent high-pressure ridge, but an incoming cloud deck is expected to suppress peaks, per model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs. May climatology averages 27–28°C highs, providing context for this mild warming trend. Uncertainties remain in cloud persistence and boundary layer mixing; official station data at Beijing Capital International Airport will resolve the market post-midnight UTC on May 16.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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