Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44.5% implied probability for Amsterdam Airport Schiphol's highest temperature reaching exactly 20°C on May 2, with 21°C close behind at 29%, driven by the latest KNMI forecast projecting a regional maximum of 23°C under a weakening high-pressure ridge introducing southwest winds, thunderstorms, and 60% precipitation chance that could cap peak heating through variable cloud cover. This positions outcomes above early May climatological averages of 15–16°C, following May 1's sunny 24°C high, but model ensembles like ECMWF show spreads around 19–21°C due to instability risks. New 12Z runs and KNMI updates later today may shift odds as the short-range forecast refines amid inherent uncertainties in convective activity.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Amsterdam on May 2?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on May 2?
20°C 49%
21°C 29%
19°C 14%
22°C 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 may 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
3%
19°C
14%
20°C
49%
21°C
29%
22°C
10%
23°C
2%
24°C or higher
1%
20°C 49%
21°C 29%
19°C 14%
22°C 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 may 2026
14°C or below
$417 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$419 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$311 Vol.
1%
17°C
$1,621 Vol.
1%
18°C
$373 Vol.
3%
19°C
$865 Vol.
14%
20°C
$408 Vol.
49%
21°C
$503 Vol.
29%
22°C
$477 Vol.
10%
23°C
$112 Vol.
2%
24°C or higher
$946 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44.5% implied probability for Amsterdam Airport Schiphol's highest temperature reaching exactly 20°C on May 2, with 21°C close behind at 29%, driven by the latest KNMI forecast projecting a regional maximum of 23°C under a weakening high-pressure ridge introducing southwest winds, thunderstorms, and 60% precipitation chance that could cap peak heating through variable cloud cover. This positions outcomes above early May climatological averages of 15–16°C, following May 1's sunny 24°C high, but model ensembles like ECMWF show spreads around 19–21°C due to instability risks. New 12Z runs and KNMI updates later today may shift odds as the short-range forecast refines amid inherent uncertainties in convective activity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Volumen
$6,429Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:21 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44.5% implied probability for Amsterdam Airport Schiphol's highest temperature reaching exactly 20°C on May 2, with 21°C close behind at 29%, driven by the latest KNMI forecast projecting a regional maximum of 23°C under a weakening high-pressure ridge introducing southwest winds, thunderstorms, and 60% precipitation chance that could cap peak heating through variable cloud cover. This positions outcomes above early May climatological averages of 15–16°C, following May 1's sunny 24°C high, but model ensembles like ECMWF show spreads around 19–21°C due to instability risks. New 12Z runs and KNMI updates later today may shift odds as the short-range forecast refines amid inherent uncertainties in convective activity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$6,429Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:21 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44.5% implied probability for Amsterdam Airport Schiphol's highest temperature reaching exactly 20°C on May 2, with 21°C close behind at 29%, driven by the latest KNMI forecast projecting a regional maximum of 23°C under a weakening high-pressure ridge introducing southwest winds, thunderstorms, and 60% precipitation chance that could cap peak heating through variable cloud cover. This positions outcomes above early May climatological averages of 15–16°C, following May 1's sunny 24°C high, but model ensembles like ECMWF show spreads around 19–21°C due to instability risks. New 12Z runs and KNMI updates later today may shift odds as the short-range forecast refines amid inherent uncertainties in convective activity.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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