Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44.5% implied probability for a 20°C high in Amsterdam on May 2, closely tracking the latest KNMI short-range guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble means projecting 20-21°C at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, the market's resolution station. This positioning stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge over northwest Europe fostering subsidence, clear skies, and light southeast winds that enable above-climatological temperatures—early May averages 15-16°C—following today's forecasted 24°C sunny conditions. Ensemble spreads reflect uncertainty from potential convective showers or increased cloud cover, which could cap highs at 19°C (18% odds) or allow 22°C (10%) if the ridge strengthens; new 12Z model runs and afternoon KNMI updates today may refine these probabilities further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Amsterdam on May 2?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on May 2?
20°C 49%
21°C 29%
19°C 15%
22°C 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 may 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
3%
19°C
15%
20°C
49%
21°C
29%
22°C
10%
23°C
2%
24°C or higher
1%
20°C 49%
21°C 29%
19°C 15%
22°C 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 may 2026
14°C or below
$417 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$419 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$311 Vol.
1%
17°C
$1,621 Vol.
1%
18°C
$373 Vol.
3%
19°C
$865 Vol.
15%
20°C
$408 Vol.
49%
21°C
$503 Vol.
29%
22°C
$477 Vol.
10%
23°C
$112 Vol.
2%
24°C or higher
$946 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44.5% implied probability for a 20°C high in Amsterdam on May 2, closely tracking the latest KNMI short-range guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble means projecting 20-21°C at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, the market's resolution station. This positioning stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge over northwest Europe fostering subsidence, clear skies, and light southeast winds that enable above-climatological temperatures—early May averages 15-16°C—following today's forecasted 24°C sunny conditions. Ensemble spreads reflect uncertainty from potential convective showers or increased cloud cover, which could cap highs at 19°C (18% odds) or allow 22°C (10%) if the ridge strengthens; new 12Z model runs and afternoon KNMI updates today may refine these probabilities further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Volumen
$6,452Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:21 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44.5% implied probability for a 20°C high in Amsterdam on May 2, closely tracking the latest KNMI short-range guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble means projecting 20-21°C at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, the market's resolution station. This positioning stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge over northwest Europe fostering subsidence, clear skies, and light southeast winds that enable above-climatological temperatures—early May averages 15-16°C—following today's forecasted 24°C sunny conditions. Ensemble spreads reflect uncertainty from potential convective showers or increased cloud cover, which could cap highs at 19°C (18% odds) or allow 22°C (10%) if the ridge strengthens; new 12Z model runs and afternoon KNMI updates today may refine these probabilities further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$6,452Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:21 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44.5% implied probability for a 20°C high in Amsterdam on May 2, closely tracking the latest KNMI short-range guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble means projecting 20-21°C at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, the market's resolution station. This positioning stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge over northwest Europe fostering subsidence, clear skies, and light southeast winds that enable above-climatological temperatures—early May averages 15-16°C—following today's forecasted 24°C sunny conditions. Ensemble spreads reflect uncertainty from potential convective showers or increased cloud cover, which could cap highs at 19°C (18% odds) or allow 22°C (10%) if the ridge strengthens; new 12Z model runs and afternoon KNMI updates today may refine these probabilities further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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