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Mundo·Elecciones Globales

¿Ganador de la primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Colombia?

icon for ¿Ganador de la primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Colombia?
Mundo·Elecciones Globales

¿Ganador de la primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Colombia?

Iván Cepeda Castro 93%

Abelardo de la Espriella 5.9%

Paloma Valencia 1.3%

Luis Gilberto Murillo <1%

Polymarket

$4,943,997 Vol.

Iván Cepeda Castro 93%

Abelardo de la Espriella 5.9%

Paloma Valencia 1.3%

Luis Gilberto Murillo <1%

Polymarket

$4,943,997 Vol.

icon for Iván Cepeda Castro

Iván Cepeda Castro

$406,904 Vol.

93%

icon for Abelardo de la Espriella

Abelardo de la Espriella

$823,855 Vol.

6%

icon for Paloma Valencia

Paloma Valencia

$420,053 Vol.

1%

icon for Luis Gilberto Murillo

Luis Gilberto Murillo

$289,364 Vol.

<1%

icon for Claudia López

Claudia López

$227,799 Vol.

<1%

icon for David Luna Sánchez

David Luna Sánchez

$248,519 Vol.

<1%

icon for Germán Vargas Lleras

Germán Vargas Lleras

$211,331 Vol.

<1%

icon for Roy Barreras

Roy Barreras

$206,681 Vol.

<1%

icon for Daniel Quintero

Daniel Quintero

$187,211 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mauricio Cárdenas

Mauricio Cárdenas

$257,533 Vol.

<1%

icon for Enrique Peñalosa

Enrique Peñalosa

$229,877 Vol.

<1%

icon for Vicky Dávila

Vicky Dávila

$435,650 Vol.

<1%

icon for Juan Daniel Oviedo

Juan Daniel Oviedo

$146,832 Vol.

<1%

icon for Gustavo Bolívar

Gustavo Bolívar

$229,284 Vol.

<1%

icon for Sergio Fajardo

Sergio Fajardo

$206,942 Vol.

<1%

icon for Juan Manuel Galán

Juan Manuel Galán

$234,933 Vol.

<1%

icon for Juan Carlos Pinzón

Juan Carlos Pinzón

$144,728 Vol.

<1%

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Recent Invamer and Atlas-Intel polls released in the past week confirm Iván Cepeda Castro's dominant first-round lead at 37-44%, driving trader consensus to a 92.5% implied probability for him topping the May 31 Colombia presidential ballot. The Pacto Histórico candidate benefits from unified left-wing support solidified after their March legislative election gains as the largest congressional bloc, while center-right opposition remains fragmented between Abelardo de la Espriella (21-29%) and surging Paloma Valencia (20%). No consolidation signals have emerged amid ongoing debates. Realistic challenges include a late anti-left endorsement unifying rivals, major scandals targeting Cepeda, or violence disrupting turnout in key regions—though structural vote-splitting favors his plurality path.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.

If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volumen
$4,943,997
Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Recent Invamer and Atlas-Intel polls released in the past week confirm Iván Cepeda Castro's dominant first-round lead at 37-44%, driving trader consensus to a 92.5% implied probability for him topping the May 31 Colombia presidential ballot. The Pacto Histórico candidate benefits from unified left-wing support solidified after their March legislative election gains as the largest congressional bloc, while center-right opposition remains fragmented between Abelardo de la Espriella (21-29%) and surging Paloma Valencia (20%). No consolidation signals have emerged amid ongoing debates. Realistic challenges include a late anti-left endorsement unifying rivals, major scandals targeting Cepeda, or violence disrupting turnout in key regions—though structural vote-splitting favors his plurality path.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.

If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volumen
$4,943,997
Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

" ¿Ganador de la primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Colombia?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 18 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Iván Cepeda Castro" con 93%, seguido de "Abelardo de la Espriella" con 6%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 93¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 93% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, " ¿Ganador de la primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Colombia?" ha generado $4.9 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Dec 23, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en " ¿Ganador de la primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Colombia?", explora los 18 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para " ¿Ganador de la primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Colombia?" es "Iván Cepeda Castro" con 93%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 93% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Abelardo de la Espriella" con 6%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para " ¿Ganador de la primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Colombia?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.