Trader consensus favors conservative lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella at 51% implied probability for second place in Colombia's May 31 first-round presidential election, reflecting late April polls from AtlasIntel, Guarumo-EcoAnalítica, and Invamer where he trails leftist Senator Iván Cepeda (35-45%) but leads center-right Senator Paloma Valencia by 1-9 points at 21-29% versus her 13-23%. Valencia's post-March 8 primaries surge has dissipated amid right-wing fragmentation, bolstering de la Espriella's path to the June runoff alongside Cepeda. With undecided voters at 10-20% and turnout pivotal in this polarized race, final surveys could shift the closely contested second slot before resolution on election night or recount.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoElecciones presidenciales Colombia 1ª vuelta: 2º lugar
Elecciones presidenciales Colombia 1ª vuelta: 2º lugar
Abelardo de la Espriella 53%
Paloma Valencia 36%
Iván Cepeda Castro 5.1%
Gustavo Bolívar 4.8%
$38,573 Vol.
$38,573 Vol.
31 may 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella
53%
Paloma Valencia
36%
Iván Cepeda Castro
5%
Gustavo Bolívar
5%
Roy Barreras
1%
Germán Vargas Lleras
1%
Juan Carlos Pinzón
<1%
Claudia López
<1%
Vicky Dávila
<1%
Juan Manuel Galán
<1%
Luis Gilberto Murillo
<1%
Enrique Peñalosa
<1%
Juan Daniel Oviedo
6%
Mauricio Cárdenas
<1%
Sergio Fajardo
<1%
Daniel Quintero
<1%
David Luna Sánchez
<1%
Abelardo de la Espriella 53%
Paloma Valencia 36%
Iván Cepeda Castro 5.1%
Gustavo Bolívar 4.8%
$38,573 Vol.
$38,573 Vol.
31 may 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella
$3,048 Vol.
53%
Paloma Valencia
$2,762 Vol.
36%
Iván Cepeda Castro
$939 Vol.
5%
Gustavo Bolívar
$2,066 Vol.
5%
Roy Barreras
$2,959 Vol.
1%
Germán Vargas Lleras
$2,042 Vol.
1%
Juan Carlos Pinzón
$2,155 Vol.
<1%
Claudia López
$3,136 Vol.
<1%
Vicky Dávila
$2,316 Vol.
<1%
Juan Manuel Galán
$2,006 Vol.
<1%
Luis Gilberto Murillo
$2,113 Vol.
<1%
Enrique Peñalosa
$2,050 Vol.
<1%
Juan Daniel Oviedo
$2,075 Vol.
6%
Mauricio Cárdenas
$2,109 Vol.
<1%
Sergio Fajardo
$2,242 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Quintero
$2,545 Vol.
<1%
David Luna Sánchez
$2,010 Vol.
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus favors conservative lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella at 51% implied probability for second place in Colombia's May 31 first-round presidential election, reflecting late April polls from AtlasIntel, Guarumo-EcoAnalítica, and Invamer where he trails leftist Senator Iván Cepeda (35-45%) but leads center-right Senator Paloma Valencia by 1-9 points at 21-29% versus her 13-23%. Valencia's post-March 8 primaries surge has dissipated amid right-wing fragmentation, bolstering de la Espriella's path to the June runoff alongside Cepeda. With undecided voters at 10-20% and turnout pivotal in this polarized race, final surveys could shift the closely contested second slot before resolution on election night or recount.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Mercado abierto: Apr 21, 2026, 3:26 PM ET
Volumen
$38,573Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus favors conservative lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella at 51% implied probability for second place in Colombia's May 31 first-round presidential election, reflecting late April polls from AtlasIntel, Guarumo-EcoAnalítica, and Invamer where he trails leftist Senator Iván Cepeda (35-45%) but leads center-right Senator Paloma Valencia by 1-9 points at 21-29% versus her 13-23%. Valencia's post-March 8 primaries surge has dissipated amid right-wing fragmentation, bolstering de la Espriella's path to the June runoff alongside Cepeda. With undecided voters at 10-20% and turnout pivotal in this polarized race, final surveys could shift the closely contested second slot before resolution on election night or recount.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volumen
$38,573Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors conservative lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella at 51% implied probability for second place in Colombia's May 31 first-round presidential election, reflecting late April polls from AtlasIntel, Guarumo-EcoAnalítica, and Invamer where he trails leftist Senator Iván Cepeda (35-45%) but leads center-right Senator Paloma Valencia by 1-9 points at 21-29% versus her 13-23%. Valencia's post-March 8 primaries surge has dissipated amid right-wing fragmentation, bolstering de la Espriella's path to the June runoff alongside Cepeda. With undecided voters at 10-20% and turnout pivotal in this polarized race, final surveys could shift the closely contested second slot before resolution on election night or recount.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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