Polymarket trading volume on Elaine Culotti’s chances remains low, reflecting market consensus that she is unlikely to advance in the primary scheduled for June 2, 2026

(Market stabilizes at low probability consistent with limited campaign momentum.)

Hilton participates in a gubernatorial debate sponsored by CBS Television Stations, reinforcing his frontrunner status and policy proposals

Steve Hilton rises to 12%2%

Debate performance helped maintain positive momentum.

Polymarket data shows trading volume for “Who will advance from the California Governor primary?” includes a $13,304 total for Culotti, indicating renewed speculative interest

Elaine Culotti dips to 2%2%

Polymarket data shows trading volume for “Who will advance from the California Governor primary?” includes a $13,304 total for Culotti, indicating renewed speculative interest after her debate appearance

The Daily Signal highlights Culotti’s exclusion from major debates and media coverage, noting her polling decline and challenges as an independent candidate

Elaine Culotti dips to 2%3%

(Media marginalization contributed to market

Steve Hilton unveils an ambitious plan to revive California’s film and television industry, proposing increased tax credits up to 60% to bring production back to the state

Steve Hilton rises to 10%4%

Policy announcement aimed at economic growth boosted market confidence.

Eastdil CEO and other real estate executives donate significant sums to Mahan’s campaign, but this financial boost fails to translate into polling gains or market confidence

Matt Mahan drops to 3%5%

Eastdil CEO and other real estate executives donate significant sums to Mahan’s campaign, but this financial boost fails to translate into polling gains or market confidence

CalMatters reports on the fallout from Eric Swalwell’s campaign suspension (April 10) and the resulting reshuffling of endorsements, indirectly lowering expectations for

Elaine Culotti dips to 4%4%

CalMatters reports on the fallout from Eric Swalwell’s campaign suspension (April 10) and the resulting reshuffling of endorsements, indirectly lowering expectations for lesser‑known independents like Culotti and causing her

Elaine Culotti participates in the Nexstar-hosted California governor debate, gaining some exposure but overshadowed by leading Democratic and Republican candidates

Elaine Culotti dips to 5%3%

(Debate appearance provided visibility but limited impact on market

Despite continued fundraising from real estate and tech donors, Mahan remains in low single digits in polls, reflecting limited voter support and market skepticism

Despite continued fundraising from real estate and tech donors, Mahan remains in low single digits in polls, reflecting limited voter support and market skepticism

Nexstar‑hosted California Governor debate airs on YouTube, with Culotti participating alongside nine other candidates;

Elaine Culotti rises to 8%3%

the debate generates a brief market rally for her as voters see her on stage

Investigative reports reveal fringe groups' involvement in Bianco’s ballot seizure, raising concerns about campaign tactics

Chad Bianco dips to 2%2%

Media scrutiny of the thin evidence behind the ballot seizure investigation further damaged Bianco's credibility and market value.

New poll shows Porter falling to fourth place after former Vice President Kamala Harris hints at a possible run, dragging her odds down again

Katie Porter drops to 4%12%

New poll shows Porter falling to fourth place after former Vice President Kamala Harris hints at a possible run, dragging her odds down again

AgNet West and AgNet News Hour feature in-depth interviews with Elaine Culotti discussing agricultural reform and political accountability, reinforcing her campaign themes

Elaine Culotti rises to 8%4%

(Interviews briefly boosted market interest in her platform.)

Steyer's ad blitz peaks with heavy media saturation, raising his market

Tom Steyer surges to 70%38%

Massive spending and media presence pushed Steyer's market

Porter’s poll surge after a televised debate where she out‑performed rivals on housing policy

Katie Porter jumps to 16%8%

Porter’s poll surge after a televised debate where she out‑performed rivals on housing policy

Bianco participates in California Republican Party Convention and televised debate, reinforcing his law-and-order platform

Chad Bianco rises to 4%2%

His active campaigning and debate presence helped stabilize his market position despite ongoing controversies.

San Francisco Chronicle reports sexual assault allegations against rival candidate Eric Swalwell, leading to his campaign suspension and reshuffling of voter attention away from independents like Culotti

Elaine Culotti dips to 4%4%

(Swalwell’s scandal shifted focus to major party candidates, reducing Culotti’s chances.)

American Greatness publishes an article profiling Elaine Culotti’s independent vision for California, emphasizing her appeal to moderate independents frustrated with Democrats

Elaine Culotti rises to 8%4%

(Positive media exposure increased market confidence moderately.)

Former State Controller Betty Yee suspends her campaign and endorses Tom Steyer, consolidating some Democratic support

Tom Steyer surges to 32%18%

Yee's endorsement was a significant boost, reflected in a sharp

President Donald Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor via Truth Social, praising Hilton’s ability to "turn it around" and promising federal support

Steve Hilton jumps to 15%11%

Trump’s endorsement was a major catalyst for a sharp

Reports surface of campaign turmoil and weak polling, with Mahan’s campaign described as "cratering" weeks before the primary, leading to further market decline

Matt Mahan dips to 7%3%

Reports surface of campaign turmoil and weak polling, with Mahan’s campaign described as "cratering" weeks before the primary, leading to further market decline

California Secretary of State certifies Elaine Culotti as a gubernatorial candidate, confirming her official entry into the race as an independent entrepreneur, farmer, and developer

Elaine Culotti plunges to 14%27%

(Official candidate certification likely triggered initial market adjustment from 41% to 14%.)

Cancellation of a major gubernatorial debate hosted by USC and local TV stations, which Hilton was invited to, reducing campaign exposure opportunities

Steve Hilton dips to 6%4%

Loss of debate platform likely contributed to a

NBC Los Angeles reports Steve Hilton leading polls among Republicans and making Democrats nervous with his "positive populism" platform focused on crime and tax cuts

Steve Hilton rises to 10%2%

Polls showing Hilton as a frontrunner contributed to a

Elaine Culotti gains brief market attention after media coverage highlights her independent platform and late entry, causing a temporary

Elaine Culotti jumps to 12%11%

(Media coverage of her campaign vision briefly raised market optimism.)

Steyer's campaign spending surges, with reports of over $115 million spent on ads, dwarfing rivals and increasing his visibility

Tom Steyer jumps to 16%8%

Heavy ad spending boosted Steyer's profile and market

Bianco peaks at 19% after strong debate performance and polling showing him as a top Republican contender

Chad Bianco surges to 18%15%

A televised debate and favorable polls boosted Bianco's profile, leading to a significant.

Porter wins endorsement from IBEW Local 441, a key teachers‑union affiliate, sparking a modest rally

Katie Porter drops to 8%5%

Porter wins endorsement from IBEW Local 441, a key teachers‑union affiliate, sparking a modest rally

Polling shows Mahan struggling to gain traction despite fundraising, with internal campaign tensions emerging;

Matt Mahan drops to 13%9%

his chief strategist Eric Jaye parts ways with the campaign citing strategic differences

Steyer launches new campaign ads targeting utility costs and pledges to break up utility monopolies to lower

Tom Steyer jumps to 11%6%

This policy focus on a key voter concern helped Steyer regain some market support.

Bianco orders seizure of ballots from 2025 election citing election integrity concerns, sparking legal challenges

Chad Bianco drops to 3%5%

The controversial ballot seizure and ensuing court orders to unseal warrants raised doubts about Bianco's campaign tactics, causing a market dip.

Caruso confirms he will not run for public office "at this time," reaffirming his withdrawal and causing market

Rick Caruso drops to 0%14%

Caruso confirms he will not run for public office "at this time," reaffirming his withdrawal and causing market

Independent committee spends $1.5 million on a Super Bowl ad supporting Mahan, increasing his statewide visibility and reinforcing his "back to basics" message

Matt Mahan jumps to 44%12%

Independent committee spends $1.5 million on a Super Bowl ad supporting Mahan, increasing his statewide visibility and reinforcing his "back to basics" message

Caruso publicly states he is still considering a mayoral run but remains uncertain, causing minor market fluctuations

Rick Caruso rises to 14%3%

Caruso publicly states he is still considering a mayoral run but remains uncertain, causing minor market fluctuations

The filing deadline for the LA mayoral race elapsed with no Caruso filing, confirming his absence from the ballot and solidifying the outcome’s(no separate source needed –

The filing deadline for the LA mayoral race elapsed with no Caruso filing, confirming his absence from the ballot and solidifying the outcome’s(no separate source needed – deadline is public record).

The Post (NY Post) noted Caruso was reconsidering a mayoral bid after the Bass report, but the filing deadline (Feb 7) passed without a declaration, cementing the 0 %

The Post (NY Post) noted Caruso was reconsidering a mayoral bid after the Bass report, but the filing deadline (Feb 7) passed without a declaration, cementing the 0 %

Mahan’s campaign reports raising over $7 million in the first week, fueled by tech industry donors, signaling strong financial backing and boosting market confidence

Matt Mahan rises to 32%4%

Mahan’s campaign reports raising over $7 million in the first week, fueled by tech industry donors, signaling strong financial backing and boosting market confidence

Los Angeles Times reported that Mayor Karen Bass allegedly watered down the Palisades fire after‑action report;

Caruso publicly condemned the move, briefly reviving talk of a mayoral run but the market remained at 0 % as filing deadlines loomed

Los Angeles Times reports Mayor Karen Bass allegedly watered down a Palisades Fire after-action report;

Rick Caruso jumps to 11%11%

Caruso publicly criticizes Bass and reconsiders a mayoral run, briefly raising market hopes

Betting markets show a surge in support for Mahan after his announcement, with odds jumping to 36% as bettors respond to his tough-on-crime stance and Silicon Valley backing

Matt Mahan surges to 34%16%

Betting markets show a surge in support for Mahan after his announcement, with odds jumping to 36% as bettors respond to his tough-on-crime stance and Silicon Valley backing

San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan officially announces candidacy for California governor, positioning himself as a pragmatic centrist and critic of Gov.

Matt Mahan drops to 34%12%

Newsom, gaining immediate attention and endorsements from Silicon Valley and local leaders

Porter apologizes for the 2021 profanity video, regaining some voter goodwill and nudging her odds up

Katie Porter rises to 13%2%

Porter apologizes for the 2021 profanity video, regaining some voter goodwill and nudging her odds up

Analysis highlights the difficulty of the 2026 governor’s race and notes Caruso among prominent figures who declined to run, solidifying market expectations of his non-candidacy

Rick Caruso dips to 2%2%

Analysis highlights the difficulty of the 2026 governor’s race and notes Caruso among prominent figures who declined to run, solidifying market expectations of his non-candidacy

ABC 7 quoted Caruso saying family considerations drove his withdrawal, underscoring the “personal‑impact” rationale and keeping the

ABC 7 quoted Caruso saying family considerations drove his withdrawal, underscoring the “personal‑impact” rationale and keeping the

Media coverage confirms Caruso’s withdrawal from both races, emphasizing his disappointment and focus on nonprofit work, reinforcing market decline

Rick Caruso dips to 4%1%

Media coverage confirms Caruso’s withdrawal from both races, emphasizing his disappointment and focus on nonprofit work, reinforcing market decline

KFI 640 reported Caruso’s decision not to run, echoing the Jan 16 announcement and reinforcing market sentiment that his candidacy was dead

KFI 640 reported Caruso’s decision not to run, echoing the Jan 16 announcement and reinforcing market sentiment that his candidacy was dead

Rick Caruso officially announces he will not run for California governor or Los Angeles mayor, citing family considerations and political climate, causing a sharp market

Rick Caruso drops to 5%9%

Rick Caruso officially announces he will not run for California governor or Los Angeles mayor, citing family considerations and political climate, causing a sharp market

Steve Hilton participates in a California gubernatorial candidate debate in San Francisco, emphasizing gas

Steve Hilton rises to 5%1%

Debate exposure modestly increased his visibility and market support.

Polls show Steyer struggling in the crowded field, with his support dipping to a low point amid questions about his political appeal

Tom Steyer drops to 7%6%

Market reflects doubts about Steyer's viability as a candidate.

Former Senate rival Tom Steyer receives a major corporate donation, shifting voter attention away from Porter and causing another decline (source: campaign finance reporting)

Katie Porter dips to 11%2%

Former Senate rival Tom Steyer receives a major corporate donation, shifting voter attention away from Porter and causing another decline (source: campaign finance reporting)

Steve Hilton publicly rejects manmade climate change and outlines plans to reduce housing costs in California, emphasizing law enforcement and tax cuts as key priorities

This early positioning reinforced his conservative platform but did not significantly move market

Bianco's campaign announces endorsements emphasizing public safety and leadership

Chad Bianco jumps to 11%7%

Endorsements from law enforcement and conservative leaders highlighted Bianco's credentials, improving his perceived electability.

Porter raises $6.1 million in 2025 fundraising, the most of any candidate, lifting her poll standing

Katie Porter dips to 13%3%

Porter raises $6.1 million in 2025 fundraising, the most of any candidate, lifting her poll standing

Eric Swalwell announces his gubernatorial run, adding a strong Democratic rival to the crowded field

Tom Steyer dips to 13%3%

Swalwell's entry increased competition among Democrats, putting downward pressure on Steyer's market

Tom Steyer files papers to run for governor and is reported by Associated Press as entering the race, highlighting his history of political activism and recent $12 million ad spend on Proposition 50

Tom Steyer dips to 16%2%

This formal filing confirmed his candidacy but did not immediately boost market confidence.

Billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer officially announces run for California governor, focusing on affordability and pledging to tackle the state's cost of living crisis, including housing and utility costs

Tom Steyer plunges to 18%31%

Steyer's announcement introduced him as a major candidate but also triggered skepticism due to his billionaire status and previous political failures, causing a sharp

Rick Caruso hosts a town hall criticizing Mayor Karen Bass’s handling of the Palisades Fire, increasing his political profile and briefly raising market optimism

Rick Caruso rises to 11%4%

Rick Caruso hosts a town hall criticizing Mayor Karen Bass’s handling of the Palisades Fire, increasing his political profile and briefly raising market optimism

Bianco's campaign gains brief momentum after publicizing his handling of a high-profile arrest and lawsuit dismissal

Chad Bianco jumps to 8%7%

Following the dismissal of a $100 million federal lawsuit related to an alleged assassination attempt, Bianco's law-and-order image briefly boosted market confidence.

Labor union (CWA District 9) endorses Porter, giving a short‑term boost to her support

Katie Porter drops to 16%10%

Labor union (CWA District 9) endorses Porter, giving a short‑term boost to her support

Rick Caruso emerges as a potential moderate candidate for California governor amid a crowded field, with speculation about his entry boosting market interest

Rick Caruso emerges as a potential moderate candidate for California governor amid a crowded field, with speculation about his entry boosting market interest

Two viral videos surface – one showing Porter shouting “Get out of my fing shot” during a 2021 interview – further damaging her image and pushing her odds down

Katie Porter drops to 26%8%

Two viral videos surface – one showing Porter shouting “Get out of my fing shot” during a 2021 interview – further damaging her image and pushing her odds down

Porter threatens to walk out of a CBS interview, sparking criticism and a dip in poll numbers

Katie Porter surges to 34%15%

Porter threatens to walk out of a CBS interview, sparking criticism and a dip in poll numbers

Katie Porter officially announces her candidacy for California governor, entering a crowded Democratic field

Katie Porter plunges to 19%30%

Katie Porter officially announces her candidacy for California governor, entering a crowded Democratic field

Chad Bianco announces run for California governor, becoming the first major Republican candidate in the race

Chad Bianco plunges to 1%49%

Bianco's official entry into the race generated initial market interest, but the.