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icon for ¿Un acuerdo nuclear entre Estados Unidos e Irán para el 30 de abril?
Geopolítica·Alto El Fuego En Irán

¿Un acuerdo nuclear entre Estados Unidos e Irán para el 30 de abril?

icon for ¿Un acuerdo nuclear entre Estados Unidos e Irán para el 30 de abril?
Geopolítica·Alto El Fuego En Irán

¿Un acuerdo nuclear entre Estados Unidos e Irán para el 30 de abril?

abr 30

jun 30

dic 31

abr 30

jun 30

dic 31

Sí

<1% probabilidad
Polymarket

$2,525,223 Vol.

Sí

<1% probabilidad
Polymarket

$2,525,223 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.President Trump's rejection yesterday of Iran's latest nuclear proposal—deemed insufficient on curbing highly enriched uranium stockpiles and ballistic missile programs—has driven trader consensus to 99.7% against a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30, amid a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz pressuring Tehran for concessions. Talks, ongoing since April 2025, stalled over sanctions relief, verification mechanisms, and Iran's nuclear advances post-JCPOA withdrawal, with no breakthrough reported today despite diplomatic posturing. While a surprise late announcement or eleventh-hour concession could shift outcomes before midnight resolution, entrenched positions and Supreme Leader Khamenei's vows to safeguard nuclear capabilities make this improbable, reflecting skin-in-the-game skepticism.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$2,525,223
Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.President Trump's rejection yesterday of Iran's latest nuclear proposal—deemed insufficient on curbing highly enriched uranium stockpiles and ballistic missile programs—has driven trader consensus to 99.7% against a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30, amid a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz pressuring Tehran for concessions. Talks, ongoing since April 2025, stalled over sanctions relief, verification mechanisms, and Iran's nuclear advances post-JCPOA withdrawal, with no breakthrough reported today despite diplomatic posturing. While a surprise late announcement or eleventh-hour concession could shift outcomes before midnight resolution, entrenched positions and Supreme Leader Khamenei's vows to safeguard nuclear capabilities make this improbable, reflecting skin-in-the-game skepticism.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$2,525,223
Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Un acuerdo nuclear entre Estados Unidos e Irán para el 30 de abril?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Acuerdo nuclear entre EE. UU. e Irán antes del 30 de abril?" con 0%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 0¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 0% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Un acuerdo nuclear entre Estados Unidos e Irán para el 30 de abril?" ha generado $2.5 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 9, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Un acuerdo nuclear entre Estados Unidos e Irán para el 30 de abril?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "¿Un acuerdo nuclear entre Estados Unidos e Irán para el 30 de abril?" es "¿Acuerdo nuclear entre EE. UU. e Irán antes del 30 de abril?" con solo 0%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Un acuerdo nuclear entre Estados Unidos e Irán para el 30 de abril?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.