Skip to main content
icon for AZ-05 Ganador de las primarias republicanas
Política·Primarias

AZ-05 Ganador de las primarias republicanas

icon for AZ-05 Ganador de las primarias republicanas
Política·Primarias

AZ-05 Ganador de las primarias republicanas

Mark Lamb 96.3%

Travis Grantham 2.5%

Jay Feely <1%

Polymarket

$47,269 Vol.

Mark Lamb 96.3%

Travis Grantham 2.5%

Jay Feely <1%

Polymarket

$47,269 Vol.

Mark Lamb

$4,114 Vol.

96%

Travis Grantham

$1,297 Vol.

3%

Jay Feely

$41,858 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb commands trader consensus at 95% implied probability to win Arizona's 5th Congressional District Republican primary on July 21, driven by his early dominance in polls showing 54-55% support among likely GOP voters, President Trump's November 2025 endorsement, and strong fundraising emphasizing grassroots contributions. Key challengers have faltered: state Rep. Travis Grantham withdrew in March 2026 for Air National Guard active duty, while former NFL kicker Jay Feely switched to AZ-01 in December 2025, leaving Lamb with minimal competition from lesser-known candidates like Mike Gross and Daniel Keenan after the March signature filing deadline. Scenarios to upend this include a late-breaking scandal or surge by a dark horse, though ballot closure limits new entrants; early voting begins June 24.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$47,269
Fecha de finalización
4 ago 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 25, 2025, 5:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb commands trader consensus at 95% implied probability to win Arizona's 5th Congressional District Republican primary on July 21, driven by his early dominance in polls showing 54-55% support among likely GOP voters, President Trump's November 2025 endorsement, and strong fundraising emphasizing grassroots contributions. Key challengers have faltered: state Rep. Travis Grantham withdrew in March 2026 for Air National Guard active duty, while former NFL kicker Jay Feely switched to AZ-01 in December 2025, leaving Lamb with minimal competition from lesser-known candidates like Mike Gross and Daniel Keenan after the March signature filing deadline. Scenarios to upend this include a late-breaking scandal or surge by a dark horse, though ballot closure limits new entrants; early voting begins June 24.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$47,269
Fecha de finalización
4 ago 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 25, 2025, 5:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"AZ-05 Ganador de las primarias republicanas" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 3 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Mark Lamb" con 96%, seguido de "Travis Grantham" con 3%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 96¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 96% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "AZ-05 Ganador de las primarias republicanas" ha generado $47.3K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 25, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "AZ-05 Ganador de las primarias republicanas", explora los 3 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "AZ-05 Ganador de las primarias republicanas" es "Mark Lamb" con 96%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 96% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Travis Grantham" con 3%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "AZ-05 Ganador de las primarias republicanas" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.