Recent polls, including the April CIS barometer and GAD3 survey, project the Partido Popular (PP) under incumbent president Juanma Moreno securing 54-58 seats in Andalusia's 109-seat parliament—teetering on the 55-seat absolute majority threshold—driving trader consensus to a narrow 54.5% implied probability for Yes amid the closely contested race less than three weeks before the May 17 vote. PP's lead stems from Moreno's sustained popularity, PSOE's slump to historic lows around 25-31 seats, and fragmentation on the left between Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía, but Vox's growth to 13-16 seats risks splitting the right-wing vote and denying PP the outright win. Final campaign momentum, voter turnout in battleground provinces like Málaga and Huelva, or national spillover could consolidate PP support for Yes or boost Vox for No.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoElecciones en Andalucía: ¿Mayoría absoluta del PP?
Elecciones en Andalucía: ¿Mayoría absoluta del PP?
Sí
NUEVO
NUEVO
17 may 2026
Sí
NUEVO
NUEVO
17 may 2026
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).Recent polls, including the April CIS barometer and GAD3 survey, project the Partido Popular (PP) under incumbent president Juanma Moreno securing 54-58 seats in Andalusia's 109-seat parliament—teetering on the 55-seat absolute majority threshold—driving trader consensus to a narrow 54.5% implied probability for Yes amid the closely contested race less than three weeks before the May 17 vote. PP's lead stems from Moreno's sustained popularity, PSOE's slump to historic lows around 25-31 seats, and fragmentation on the left between Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía, but Vox's growth to 13-16 seats risks splitting the right-wing vote and denying PP the outright win. Final campaign momentum, voter turnout in battleground provinces like Málaga and Huelva, or national spillover could consolidate PP support for Yes or boost Vox for No.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Mercado abierto: Apr 16, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Volumen
$1,336Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).Recent polls, including the April CIS barometer and GAD3 survey, project the Partido Popular (PP) under incumbent president Juanma Moreno securing 54-58 seats in Andalusia's 109-seat parliament—teetering on the 55-seat absolute majority threshold—driving trader consensus to a narrow 54.5% implied probability for Yes amid the closely contested race less than three weeks before the May 17 vote. PP's lead stems from Moreno's sustained popularity, PSOE's slump to historic lows around 25-31 seats, and fragmentation on the left between Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía, but Vox's growth to 13-16 seats risks splitting the right-wing vote and denying PP the outright win. Final campaign momentum, voter turnout in battleground provinces like Málaga and Huelva, or national spillover could consolidate PP support for Yes or boost Vox for No.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Volumen
$1,336Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls, including the April CIS barometer and GAD3 survey, project the Partido Popular (PP) under incumbent president Juanma Moreno securing 54-58 seats in Andalusia's 109-seat parliament—teetering on the 55-seat absolute majority threshold—driving trader consensus to a narrow 54.5% implied probability for Yes amid the closely contested race less than three weeks before the May 17 vote. PP's lead stems from Moreno's sustained popularity, PSOE's slump to historic lows around 25-31 seats, and fragmentation on the left between Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía, but Vox's growth to 13-16 seats risks splitting the right-wing vote and denying PP the outright win. Final campaign momentum, voter turnout in battleground provinces like Málaga and Huelva, or national spillover could consolidate PP support for Yes or boost Vox for No.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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