Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.1% implied probability to Anthropic holding the second-best AI model by April 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's strong performance on LMSYS Chatbot Arena (around 1500 Elo) and SWE-bench Verified (82% score), following its April 16 release optimized for advanced coding and reasoning. This positions Anthropic firmly behind OpenAI's GPT-5.x flagship while outpacing Google Gemini, xAI Grok, and others on key large language model benchmarks, with no rival announcements or leaderboard shifts in the past two weeks amid stable competitive dynamics. Realistic challenges include a surprise pre-deadline model drop from OpenAI demoting Claude or Google leapfrogging via Gemini updates, though proximity to resolution limits such risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 99.1%
Google 1.1%
OpenAI <1%
Alibaba <1%
$237,197 Vol.
$237,197 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
99%
1%
OpenAI
1%
Alibaba
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
xAI
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Meta
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Anthropic 99.1%
Google 1.1%
OpenAI <1%
Alibaba <1%
$237,197 Vol.
$237,197 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
$48,301 Vol.
99%
$21,097 Vol.
1%
OpenAI
$34,429 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$8,238 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$9,064 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$9,521 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$8,623 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$10,315 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$9,014 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$8,592 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$13,219 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$10,663 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$10,382 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$6,981 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$28,768 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.1% implied probability to Anthropic holding the second-best AI model by April 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's strong performance on LMSYS Chatbot Arena (around 1500 Elo) and SWE-bench Verified (82% score), following its April 16 release optimized for advanced coding and reasoning. This positions Anthropic firmly behind OpenAI's GPT-5.x flagship while outpacing Google Gemini, xAI Grok, and others on key large language model benchmarks, with no rival announcements or leaderboard shifts in the past two weeks amid stable competitive dynamics. Realistic challenges include a surprise pre-deadline model drop from OpenAI demoting Claude or Google leapfrogging via Gemini updates, though proximity to resolution limits such risks.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Volume
$237,197End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.1% implied probability to Anthropic holding the second-best AI model by April 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's strong performance on LMSYS Chatbot Arena (around 1500 Elo) and SWE-bench Verified (82% score), following its April 16 release optimized for advanced coding and reasoning. This positions Anthropic firmly behind OpenAI's GPT-5.x flagship while outpacing Google Gemini, xAI Grok, and others on key large language model benchmarks, with no rival announcements or leaderboard shifts in the past two weeks amid stable competitive dynamics. Realistic challenges include a surprise pre-deadline model drop from OpenAI demoting Claude or Google leapfrogging via Gemini updates, though proximity to resolution limits such risks.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$237,197End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.1% implied probability to Anthropic holding the second-best AI model by April 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's strong performance on LMSYS Chatbot Arena (around 1500 Elo) and SWE-bench Verified (82% score), following its April 16 release optimized for advanced coding and reasoning. This positions Anthropic firmly behind OpenAI's GPT-5.x flagship while outpacing Google Gemini, xAI Grok, and others on key large language model benchmarks, with no rival announcements or leaderboard shifts in the past two weeks amid stable competitive dynamics. Realistic challenges include a surprise pre-deadline model drop from OpenAI demoting Claude or Google leapfrogging via Gemini updates, though proximity to resolution limits such risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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