Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.1% implied probability to Google holding the third-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, 2026, reflecting its Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview's stable positioning behind frontrunners OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7. OpenAI's April 23 release of GPT-5.5 propelled it to the top spot across key benchmarks like reasoning and multimodal tasks, while Anthropic maintained second with Opus 4.7's edge in coding and cooperation evaluations, as noted in recent Stanford AI Index data and independent analyses. Google's consistent high-Elo performance (around 1494) stems from iterative Gemini updates emphasizing long-context handling and efficiency. Despite strong alignment, a late xAI Grok surge or Chinese open models like DeepSeek V4-Pro exceeding expectations could challenge this order before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 98.0%
Anthropic 2.9%
OpenAI <1%
Mistral <1%
$1,090,121 Vol.
$1,090,121 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
98%
Anthropic
3%
OpenAI
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
xAI
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Google 98.0%
Anthropic 2.9%
OpenAI <1%
Mistral <1%
$1,090,121 Vol.
$1,090,121 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$157,552 Vol.
98%
Anthropic
$345,421 Vol.
3%
OpenAI
$100,935 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$15,246 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$26,383 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$104,795 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$41,993 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$29,772 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$15,541 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$32,614 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$34,831 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$39,567 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$22,189 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$110,437 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$12,852 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.1% implied probability to Google holding the third-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, 2026, reflecting its Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview's stable positioning behind frontrunners OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7. OpenAI's April 23 release of GPT-5.5 propelled it to the top spot across key benchmarks like reasoning and multimodal tasks, while Anthropic maintained second with Opus 4.7's edge in coding and cooperation evaluations, as noted in recent Stanford AI Index data and independent analyses. Google's consistent high-Elo performance (around 1494) stems from iterative Gemini updates emphasizing long-context handling and efficiency. Despite strong alignment, a late xAI Grok surge or Chinese open models like DeepSeek V4-Pro exceeding expectations could challenge this order before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Volume
$1,090,121End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.1% implied probability to Google holding the third-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, 2026, reflecting its Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview's stable positioning behind frontrunners OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7. OpenAI's April 23 release of GPT-5.5 propelled it to the top spot across key benchmarks like reasoning and multimodal tasks, while Anthropic maintained second with Opus 4.7's edge in coding and cooperation evaluations, as noted in recent Stanford AI Index data and independent analyses. Google's consistent high-Elo performance (around 1494) stems from iterative Gemini updates emphasizing long-context handling and efficiency. Despite strong alignment, a late xAI Grok surge or Chinese open models like DeepSeek V4-Pro exceeding expectations could challenge this order before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$1,090,121End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.1% implied probability to Google holding the third-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, 2026, reflecting its Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview's stable positioning behind frontrunners OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7. OpenAI's April 23 release of GPT-5.5 propelled it to the top spot across key benchmarks like reasoning and multimodal tasks, while Anthropic maintained second with Opus 4.7's edge in coding and cooperation evaluations, as noted in recent Stanford AI Index data and independent analyses. Google's consistent high-Elo performance (around 1494) stems from iterative Gemini updates emphasizing long-context handling and efficiency. Despite strong alignment, a late xAI Grok surge or Chinese open models like DeepSeek V4-Pro exceeding expectations could challenge this order before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions