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Chatgpt predictions & odds

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# of ChatGPT Outage Days in May 2026?

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in May 2026?

41%

2

$8.5K Vol.

$14.6K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?

Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?

73%

$37.8K Vol.

$5.6K Liq.

10

Ends in 8 months

OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

39%

50%+

$21.1K Vol.

$1.3K Liq.

1

Ends in 2 months

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

15%

$68.2K Vol.

$6.9K Liq.

10

Ends in 8 months

OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

43%

60%+

$31.4K Vol.

$1.9K Liq.

4

Ends in 2 months

GPT-6 released by…?

GPT-6 released by…?

84%

December 31, 2026

$307K Vol.

$14.1K Liq.

45

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 1?

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 1?

96%

ChatGPT

$13.1K Vol.

$15.4K Liq.

Ends in about 8 hours

#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 1?

#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 1?

87%

Claude by Anthropic

$1.9K Vol.

$2.2K Liq.

Ends in about 8 hours

What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (Apr 27 - May 3)

What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (Apr 27 - May 3)

52%

OpenAI / ChatGPT

$23.9K Vol.

$258 Liq.

3

Ends in 2 days

Which company has the best Coding AI model end of May?

Which company has the best Coding AI model end of May?

82%

Anthropic

$3.9K Vol.

$12.1K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Which company has the second-best Coding AI model end of May?

Which company has the second-best Coding AI model end of May?

83%

Anthropic

$3.5K Vol.

$8.2K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Which company has the best Coding AI model end of April?

Which company has the best Coding AI model end of April?

100%

Anthropic

$257K Vol.

$74.5K Liq.

Which company has the second best Coding AI model end of April?

Which company has the second best Coding AI model end of April?

99%

Anthropic

$36.3K Vol.

$16.7K Liq.

Which company has the best Math AI model end of May?

Which company has the best Math AI model end of May?

44%

Anthropic

$9.5K Vol.

$19.4K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Which company has the second best Math AI model end of April?

Which company has the second best Math AI model end of April?

96%

OpenAI

$13.5K Vol.

$6.3K Liq.

Which company has the best Math AI model end of April?

Which company has the best Math AI model end of April?

98%

Anthropic

$614K Vol.

$94.7K today

$110K Liq.

Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?

Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?

92%

1560

$2.4K Vol.

$1.4K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Which company has the best AI model end of May?

Which company has the best AI model end of May?

71%

Anthropic

$2M Vol.

$381K today

$790K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Which company has the best AI model end of April?

Which company has the best AI model end of April?

100%

Anthropic

$21M Vol.

$140K today

$4M Liq.

3

Which company has the #1 AI model end of May? (Style Control On)

Which company has the #1 AI model end of May? (Style Control On)

69%

Anthropic

$73.1K Vol.

$79.2K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 111 active markets for Chatgpt that lets you track or trade on predictions like “# of ChatGPT Outage Days in May 2026?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $24.7M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Which company has the best AI model end of April?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Which company has the best AI model end of April?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 100% chance to Anthropic. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Chatgpt predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.