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Tech·Dario Amodei

Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by...?

icon for Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by...?
Tech·Dario Amodei

Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by...?

$123,860 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$123,860 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for April 30

April 30

$72,369 Vol.

83%

icon for May 31

May 31

$17,410 Vol.

96%

icon for June 30

June 30

$39,009 Vol.

96%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic grants the United States federal government access to Claude Mythos (including Mythos Preview) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Granting access to Claude Mythos refers to Anthropic allowing any department, agency, or subset of the United States federal government to use Claude Mythos for any purpose. An official announcement from either Anthropic or the United States federal government, that Anthropic has agreed to grant the United States federal government access to Claude Mythos, will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether access begins after the resolution date. Suggestions, negotiations, or other statements that do not constitute granting access will not qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Anthropic has agreed to grant access to Claude Mythos to the United States federal government will also suffice. “Claude Mythos” refers to a model named “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos Preview, Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos X) or a model confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model referenced in the March 26, 2026 leak. Models such as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not qualify unless explicitly confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak. General public availability of a Claude Mythos model without a qualifying announcement or confirmation of access being granted will not alone suffice. The primary resolution sources will be official information from Anthropic and the United States federal government, and a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's Claude Mythos Preview, a frontier AI model excelling in cybersecurity vulnerability detection and code analysis, has already reached U.S. government users despite prior Pentagon blacklisting, with the NSA actively testing it for scanning exploitable weaknesses as of April 19. Recent White House meetings and directives, including today's block on expanding access beyond 50 trusted partners to prioritize federal agencies, underscore Mythos as a rationed strategic asset amid competitive AI races for cyber defense superiority. Trader consensus reflects strong implied probability of formal provision, hinged on ongoing DoD negotiations hinted at by President Trump on April 21, though regulatory hurdles or compute constraints could delay broader rollout.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic grants the United States federal government access to Claude Mythos (including Mythos Preview) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Granting access to Claude Mythos refers to Anthropic allowing any department, agency, or subset of the United States federal government to use Claude Mythos for any purpose.

An official announcement from either Anthropic or the United States federal government, that Anthropic has agreed to grant the United States federal government access to Claude Mythos, will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether access begins after the resolution date. Suggestions, negotiations, or other statements that do not constitute granting access will not qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Anthropic has agreed to grant access to Claude Mythos to the United States federal government will also suffice.

“Claude Mythos” refers to a model named “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos Preview, Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos X) or a model confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model referenced in the March 26, 2026 leak. Models such as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not qualify unless explicitly confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak.

General public availability of a Claude Mythos model without a qualifying announcement or confirmation of access being granted will not alone suffice.

The primary resolution sources will be official information from Anthropic and the United States federal government, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$123,860
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 17, 2026, 6:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic grants the United States federal government access to Claude Mythos (including Mythos Preview) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Granting access to Claude Mythos refers to Anthropic allowing any department, agency, or subset of the United States federal government to use Claude Mythos for any purpose. An official announcement from either Anthropic or the United States federal government, that Anthropic has agreed to grant the United States federal government access to Claude Mythos, will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether access begins after the resolution date. Suggestions, negotiations, or other statements that do not constitute granting access will not qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Anthropic has agreed to grant access to Claude Mythos to the United States federal government will also suffice. “Claude Mythos” refers to a model named “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos Preview, Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos X) or a model confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model referenced in the March 26, 2026 leak. Models such as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not qualify unless explicitly confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak. General public availability of a Claude Mythos model without a qualifying announcement or confirmation of access being granted will not alone suffice. The primary resolution sources will be official information from Anthropic and the United States federal government, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic grants the United States federal government access to Claude Mythos (including Mythos Preview) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Granting access to Claude Mythos refers to Anthropic allowing any department, agency, or subset of the United States federal government to use Claude Mythos for any purpose. An official announcement from either Anthropic or the United States federal government, that Anthropic has agreed to grant the United States federal government access to Claude Mythos, will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether access begins after the resolution date. Suggestions, negotiations, or other statements that do not constitute granting access will not qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Anthropic has agreed to grant access to Claude Mythos to the United States federal government will also suffice. “Claude Mythos” refers to a model named “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos Preview, Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos X) or a model confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model referenced in the March 26, 2026 leak. Models such as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not qualify unless explicitly confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak. General public availability of a Claude Mythos model without a qualifying announcement or confirmation of access being granted will not alone suffice. The primary resolution sources will be official information from Anthropic and the United States federal government, and a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's Claude Mythos Preview, a frontier AI model excelling in cybersecurity vulnerability detection and code analysis, has already reached U.S. government users despite prior Pentagon blacklisting, with the NSA actively testing it for scanning exploitable weaknesses as of April 19. Recent White House meetings and directives, including today's block on expanding access beyond 50 trusted partners to prioritize federal agencies, underscore Mythos as a rationed strategic asset amid competitive AI races for cyber defense superiority. Trader consensus reflects strong implied probability of formal provision, hinged on ongoing DoD negotiations hinted at by President Trump on April 21, though regulatory hurdles or compute constraints could delay broader rollout.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic grants the United States federal government access to Claude Mythos (including Mythos Preview) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Granting access to Claude Mythos refers to Anthropic allowing any department, agency, or subset of the United States federal government to use Claude Mythos for any purpose.

An official announcement from either Anthropic or the United States federal government, that Anthropic has agreed to grant the United States federal government access to Claude Mythos, will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether access begins after the resolution date. Suggestions, negotiations, or other statements that do not constitute granting access will not qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Anthropic has agreed to grant access to Claude Mythos to the United States federal government will also suffice.

“Claude Mythos” refers to a model named “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos Preview, Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos X) or a model confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model referenced in the March 26, 2026 leak. Models such as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not qualify unless explicitly confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak.

General public availability of a Claude Mythos model without a qualifying announcement or confirmation of access being granted will not alone suffice.

The primary resolution sources will be official information from Anthropic and the United States federal government, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$123,860
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 17, 2026, 6:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic grants the United States federal government access to Claude Mythos (including Mythos Preview) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Granting access to Claude Mythos refers to Anthropic allowing any department, agency, or subset of the United States federal government to use Claude Mythos for any purpose. An official announcement from either Anthropic or the United States federal government, that Anthropic has agreed to grant the United States federal government access to Claude Mythos, will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether access begins after the resolution date. Suggestions, negotiations, or other statements that do not constitute granting access will not qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Anthropic has agreed to grant access to Claude Mythos to the United States federal government will also suffice. “Claude Mythos” refers to a model named “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos Preview, Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos X) or a model confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model referenced in the March 26, 2026 leak. Models such as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not qualify unless explicitly confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak. General public availability of a Claude Mythos model without a qualifying announcement or confirmation of access being granted will not alone suffice. The primary resolution sources will be official information from Anthropic and the United States federal government, and a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "May 31" at 96%, followed by "June 30" at 96%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by...?" has generated $123.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by...?" is "May 31" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30" at 96%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.