Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 release on April 16 propelled it to the top of key coding benchmarks like Code Arena—gaining a 37-point lead over its predecessor and over 130 points ahead of GPT-5.4 and Gemini 3.1 Pro—driving trader consensus to a 99.7% implied probability for Anthropic as the best coding AI model by April's end. This agentic large language model excels in real-world tasks such as building live apps and multi-file reasoning on SWE-bench (80.9%+ scores), outpacing rivals through superior tool use, context management, and developer ecosystem integration via tools like Claude Code. With the market resolving imminently, only a surprise competitor launch or leaderboard reevaluation could challenge this positioning, though recent stability favors the status quo.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 99.8%
OpenAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
Moonshot <1%
$258,032 Vol.
$258,032 Vol.

Anthropic
100%

OpenAI
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

xAI
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

<1%

Amazon
<1%

Z.ai
<1%
Anthropic 99.8%
OpenAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
Moonshot <1%
$258,032 Vol.
$258,032 Vol.

Anthropic
100%

OpenAI
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

xAI
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

<1%

Amazon
<1%

Z.ai
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 2, 2026, 5:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 release on April 16 propelled it to the top of key coding benchmarks like Code Arena—gaining a 37-point lead over its predecessor and over 130 points ahead of GPT-5.4 and Gemini 3.1 Pro—driving trader consensus to a 99.7% implied probability for Anthropic as the best coding AI model by April's end. This agentic large language model excels in real-world tasks such as building live apps and multi-file reasoning on SWE-bench (80.9%+ scores), outpacing rivals through superior tool use, context management, and developer ecosystem integration via tools like Claude Code. With the market resolving imminently, only a surprise competitor launch or leaderboard reevaluation could challenge this positioning, though recent stability favors the status quo.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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