The ongoing federal trial in Oakland, which began April 27, 2026, has solidified trader consensus at 72% against a settlement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman, as Musk's aggressive testimony accuses OpenAI leaders of betraying the nonprofit's original mission for profit-driven gains with Microsoft. Musk, testifying over two days and returning to the stand, rejected prior equity offers as bribes and demands $150 billion in damages, OpenAI's return to nonprofit status, and Altman's removal—high stakes amplifying AI governance tensions amid xAI-OpenAI rivalry. No settlement signals have emerged from courtroom revelations of texts and emails, with a mid-May ruling looming as the key catalyst that could shift market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Dec 31, 2026
NEW
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ongoing federal trial in Oakland, which began April 27, 2026, has solidified trader consensus at 72% against a settlement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman, as Musk's aggressive testimony accuses OpenAI leaders of betraying the nonprofit's original mission for profit-driven gains with Microsoft. Musk, testifying over two days and returning to the stand, rejected prior equity offers as bribes and demands $150 billion in damages, OpenAI's return to nonprofit status, and Altman's removal—high stakes amplifying AI governance tensions amid xAI-OpenAI rivalry. No settlement signals have emerged from courtroom revelations of texts and emails, with a mid-May ruling looming as the key catalyst that could shift market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
Volume
$6,218End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ongoing federal trial in Oakland, which began April 27, 2026, has solidified trader consensus at 72% against a settlement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman, as Musk's aggressive testimony accuses OpenAI leaders of betraying the nonprofit's original mission for profit-driven gains with Microsoft. Musk, testifying over two days and returning to the stand, rejected prior equity offers as bribes and demands $150 billion in damages, OpenAI's return to nonprofit status, and Altman's removal—high stakes amplifying AI governance tensions amid xAI-OpenAI rivalry. No settlement signals have emerged from courtroom revelations of texts and emails, with a mid-May ruling looming as the key catalyst that could shift market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,218End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ongoing federal trial in Oakland, which began April 27, 2026, has solidified trader consensus at 72% against a settlement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman, as Musk's aggressive testimony accuses OpenAI leaders of betraying the nonprofit's original mission for profit-driven gains with Microsoft. Musk, testifying over two days and returning to the stand, rejected prior equity offers as bribes and demands $150 billion in damages, OpenAI's return to nonprofit status, and Altman's removal—high stakes amplifying AI governance tensions amid xAI-OpenAI rivalry. No settlement signals have emerged from courtroom revelations of texts and emails, with a mid-May ruling looming as the key catalyst that could shift market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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